0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?September 30
ResolvedOutcome: No$112Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
23 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Asaf Rosenzweig
The number of liquefied natural gas shipments leaving the Strait of Hormuz also rose in September to its highest monthly level since February. The data does not include vessels that may have transited the strait with their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transmitters turned off to avoid detection.
The number of liquefied natural gas shipments leaving the Strait of Hormuz also increased in September, reaching the highest monthly level since February.
Reuters news agency, citing preliminary data from Kepler, said Middle East crude oil exports exceeded pre-war levels in four of the last seven days of September, despite attacks on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Strait of Hormuz: LNG shipments in September hit highest level since Iran war.
Oilprice.com, a global website specializing in oil and energy news: Since August, Iran has begun allowing Iraqi oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz in response to Baghdad's requests, amid declining tanker traffic and rising shipping costs. Iraq's average exports from its southern ports were around 2.35 million barrels per day in August, rising to around 2.6 million barrels per day in September.
Oilprice.com, a global website specializing in oil and energy news: Since August, Iran has begun allowing Iraqi oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz in response to Baghdad's requests, amid declining tanker traffic and rising shipping costs. Iraq's average exports from its southern ports were around 2.35 million barrels per day in August, rising to around 2.6 million barrels per day in September.
Reuters: Number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz drops to less than 10
Hormuz commodity ship transits fall to single digits, shiptracking data shows
Reuters: Number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz drops to less than 10
Shipping data: The number of merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased to 2.
77 vessels blacklisted by Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority across three rounds since August, for using the unauthorized southern corridor or skipping tolls on the northern one. • • Listing hasn't stopped them trading: 61% still broadcast AIS in September, and nearly all carry the P&I insurance Iran is telling insurers to drop.
Strait of hormuz ship crossings remain in single digits, data shows
Reuters: Seven ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on September 10.
Hormuz shipping traffic falls to single digits, data shows
The Joint Maritime Intelligence Center announced in its latest report that, based on independent data, no oil tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz without US assistance from September 1 to 4. During the same period, US data showed 59 ship crossings with US assistance. The center assessed the threat level in the Strait of Hormuz as "severe" and wrote that the activities of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, including flying drones, monitoring commercial ships and radio contacts with them, continue. Some ships may also receive messages to change course to the northern route controlled by Iran. According to the report, the US naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in place and unauthorized entry or exit may result in interception or the use of force. Neutral ships are allowed to pass, but may face inspection by US forces.
The New York Times reported that despite the US military's efforts to protect tankers from attacks by the Islamic Republic, oil transiting the Strait of Hormuz remains significantly lower than before the war. According to data from TankerTrackers, in the seven days ending Thursday, September 1, an average of 6.7 million barrels of oil passed through the strait daily, nearly 60 percent less than in the months before the war began on March 31. The New York Times wrote that the Islamic Republic targeted at least 23 ships in June, July and August, and the continued attacks have caused many private shipping companies to not return to the Persian Gulf. Eugene Goles, a professor of political science at the University of Notre Dame, described the situation in the Strait of Hormuz as a "deadly stalemate," saying: "Iran cannot completely close it, and the United States cannot completely open it." By The New York Times reports that the Islamic Republic has used disruptions to shipping and restrictions on oil supplies as leverage to pressure the United States, demanding fees from ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, an issue the United States opposes.
The Joint Maritime Intelligence Center, on Thursday, September 3, called the threat level in the region's waterways "severe" and announced that the attacks and efforts of the Revolutionary Guard Corps to target or disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continue, including the flying of drones, targeted surveillance of commercial ships, and occasional radio contacts with them. According to the report, commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains below normal levels, and independent data indicates single-digit numbers of ships passing in both directions. The report also mentions the killing of two crew members of the "Sider" oil tanker, which was attacked on the evening of September 29 while passing eastward through the Strait of Hormuz.
Shipping data: The number of commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz daily has dropped to 5.
Agency: Number of merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz drops to 5 per day
Reuters reported that shipping data showed that the number of commercial vessels carrying goods that can be tracked through the Strait of Hormuz fell to five a day over the weekend. Shipping companies are using the route with more caution following continued attacks on ships in the region. Reuters added that the actual number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz may be higher, as some vessels have turned off their automatic identification systems to reduce the risk of attack. The drop in traffic comes amid ongoing military tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and reports of attacks or threats against ships.
Reuters, citing shipping data: Number of commodity ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz falls to 5 per day
Vessels crossing Hormuz strait drop to 5 per day over weekend
YESReuters93%match18¢-100%
Commodity Vessels Transiting via Strait of Hormuz Drop to 5 Per Day Over Weekend -Data
Where does the news lean?
24YES33NO8neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No."
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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