0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?July 7
ResolvedOutcome: No$11Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
MarineTraffic, a platform specializing in tracking maritime traffic: - Commercial traffic continues in the Strait of Hormuz... 108 ship transits recorded in three days. - MarineTraffic data shows that, despite geopolitical and security risks, commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains stable. - According to this data, 108 confirmed ship transits were recorded in this waterway between July 3 and 5. - The details of transit traffic by day are as follows: 43 transits on July 3, 34 on July 4, and 31 on July 5. The distribution of sailing directions was also relatively balanced, with 60 east-west voyages and 48 west-east voyages. - Ships continue to use various transit routes; 44 ships passed through the Iranian route, 30 through the Omani route, and 10 through the International Maritime Organization (IMO) route, while 24 ships were classified as "dark ships" or of unknown identity. - The transit included different types of ships, including oil tankers, container ships, bulk cargo ships, and gas tankers.
Hormuz transit recap, July 6: despite attacks and overnight slowdown, the strait stayed open through the full 24-hour window with 18 vessels inbound, 27 outbound. Multi-source intelligence confirmed two OFAC-designated tankers mid-transit, both carrying Kharg Island crude to China. • • Outbound crude flow: roughly 12M barrels across seven tankers, valued at an estimated $872M combined with products, per @Vortexa.
Strait Traffic remains resilient • • #MarineTraffic data recorded 108 verified vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz between 3 and 5 July, with 43 crossings on 3 July, 34 on 4 July and 31 on 5 July. Traffic was broadly balanced by direction, with 60 East-to-West crossings and 48 West-to-East crossings. Route selection remained fragmented, with 44 vessels using the Iranian Route, 30 using the Omani Route, 10 following the IMO Route and 24 classified as Dark or Unknown. • • The transits covered a wide range of vessel types, including tankers, container ships, bulk carriers and gas carriers, underscoring that commercial shipping continues to move through the Strait while operators maintain diversified routing strategies amid ongoing geopolitical and maritime security risks.
Cosmo crude oil tanker passes through the Strait of Hormuz, expected to return to port in mid-July; normalization remains uncertain.
Hormuz, July 4–5: 78 transits (46 in / 32 out), 12 dark. • • • Saturday: IRGC patrol activity, a VHF warning to ships on the U.S.-backed corridor, and six tankers diverting or reversing off the southern route. • • • Sunday: four OFAC-sanctioned vessels transiting inbound, and a sanctioned dark-fleet VLCC identified loading at Kharg for an assessed dark run to East Asia.
Where does the news lean?
0YES5NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No."
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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