0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?July 14
ResolvedOutcome: No$120Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
9 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Marine Traffic: No ships using Omani route through Strait of Hormuz The risk in the Strait of Hormuz has become more severe despite a slight increase in transits. Vessel activity in the Strait of Hormuz increased slightly on July 14, with 21 confirmed transits recorded. No ships are using the Omani route, while ship traffic continues to use the route approved by Iran, highlighting the decline in confidence in the alternative route. Renewed security threats, legal and geopolitical uncertainty have complicated the situation for seafarers.
Marine Traffic: No ships using Omani route through Strait of Hormuz The risk in the Strait of Hormuz has become more severe despite a slight increase in transits. Vessel activity in the Strait of Hormuz increased slightly on July 14, with 21 confirmed transits recorded. No ships are using the Omani route, while ship traffic continues to use the route approved by Iran, highlighting the decline in confidence in the alternative route. Renewed security threats, legal and geopolitical uncertainty have complicated the situation for seafarers.
Iran says 200 ships sought Hormuz permits since June
++ BBC, transits through Hormuz effectively zero since yesterday evening ++
Live: No ships tracked through Strait of Hormuz
Kpler data: Only 6 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday
02:59/ July 11
The Strait of Hormuz was completely closed from all directions.
Strait of Hormuz crossings fall as operators remain cautious • • Confirmed vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz fell for a second consecutive day on 9 July, dropping to 22 crossings from 30 the previous day, according to #MarineTraffic data. Activity remained largely low-risk, with commercial movements only slightly exceeding non-commercial traffic. Operators continued to favour the Iranian route, while the Omani route recorded just one crossing, reinforcing the lasting impact of recent security incidents near Oman. No new physical attacks have been recorded since 7 July, but renewed US-Iran military escalation continues to weigh on confidence that diplomatic efforts will deliver near-term stability.
The Kepler maritime traffic monitoring platform revealed today that confirmed transits through the Strait of Hormuz decreased for the second consecutive day on July 9, reaching 22 transits down from 30 the previous day. According to the shipping data, traffic remained largely low-risk, with commercial shipping only slightly exceeding non-commercial traffic. Operators continued to favor the Iranian route, while the Omani route saw only one transit, confirming the ongoing impact of recent security incidents near Oman.
Where does the news lean?
10YES12NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No."
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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