0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?August 31
Open$114Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 5% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES5¢
NO95¢
as of
What moved the odds?
10 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Shipping data shows no vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, compared to only 5 vessels on Saturday.
Shipping data shows no vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, compared to only 5 vessels last Saturday.
Ship traffic in Strait of Hormuz plummets… ‘0’ on the 16th
Ship traffic in Strait of Hormuz plummets… ‘0’ on the 16th
Reuters, citing shipping data: No vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday.
Reuters, citing shipping data: No vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday.
Reuters, citing shipping data: No vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday
Reuters, citing shipping data: No vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday.
Reuters, citing shipping data: No vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday
Ship tracking data from Kpler: 5 cargo ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday and no transits were recorded on Sunday
Where does the news lean?
13YES1NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No."
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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