Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
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This hub tracks 1 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
16 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
BREAKING: Iranian regime projected to fall.
Iranian regime forces are continuing mass arrests around the country after protests.
Horrific images from recent days show dozens of bodies stacked up at a morgue in the Iranian capital of Tehran.
Iranian authorities will press capital crime charges against some suspects arrested over recent demonstrations, prosecutors said Tuesday
The Islamic regime’s security forces are filming the brutally murdered protesters. In the video, one of the security forces can be seen holding a shotgun, a weapon they frequently use to kill Iranian anti-regime protesters.
While Europe bets on “diplomatic dialogue” with the Islamic regime in Iran, thousands of bodies of protesters murdered by the regime are being piled up in hangars.
The Germans seem pretty confident the Iranian regime is close to falling.
Protests against the Ayatollah’s regime continue in Iran despite brutal mass killings by Islamic security forces. In Isfahan, thousands have taken to the streets. Buses used to transport security forces are already burning.
An estimated 7 000 Iranian civilians have been killed by the regime in the last few days.
[Replying to @GlobeEyeNews] The rial has collapsed to record lows, nearing zero against the euro due to crippling international sanctions, high inflation, economic mismanagement, and loss of purchasing power, sparking widespread economic hardship and protests. > Iran’s currency has collapsed, and now 1 Iranian rial is worth 0 euros.
Iran’s currency has collapsed, and now 1 Iranian rial is worth 0 euros.
It is reported over 3000 protestors were killed by Iranian regime forces in the last week.
JUST IN: The odds of the Iranian Regime falling have tripled since the new year.
RT @Polymarket: BREAKING: Iran enters its 8th night of national protests against the regime, and armed citizens have now taken to the stree…
After y-day’s massacre in Malekshahi in western Iran where regime forces opened fire on anti-regime protesters, killing several people & wounding dozens, the regime forces have now visited the hospital where the survivors are being treated. They beat up victims & family members
BREAKING: The Islamic regime’s security forces just opened fire on Iranian anti-regime protesters in the country’s third-largest country Isfahan. Via @ShayanX0
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.