Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
ResolvedOutcome: No$65.9Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
YESPolymarket99%match42¢-100%
BREAKING: Iranian regime projected to fall.
NOCGTN America99%match68¢+47%
Iranian authorities will press capital crime charges against some suspects arrested over recent demonstrations, prosecutors said Tuesday
NOVisegrád 2499%match68¢+47%
The Islamic regime’s security forces are filming the brutally murdered protesters. In the video, one of the security forces can be seen holding a shotgun, a weapon they frequently use to kill Iranian anti-regime protesters.
YESVisegrád 2499%match32¢-100%
Protests against the Ayatollah’s regime continue in Iran despite brutal mass killings by Islamic security forces. In Isfahan, thousands have taken to the streets. Buses used to transport security forces are already burning.
YESVisegrád 2499%match32¢-100%
An estimated 7 000 Iranian civilians have been killed by the regime in the last few days.
YESPolymarket99%match18¢-100%
RT @Polymarket: BREAKING: Iran enters its 8th night of national protests against the regime, and armed citizens have now taken to the stree…
Where does the news lean?
11YES5NO9neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.