Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
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This hub tracks 1 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
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What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
LIVE Middle East war: France will take "an initiative" at the UN regarding its "neutral" mission to secure the Strait of Hormuz
SANCTIONED • • UK sanctions Iranian targets in response to national security threats
U.K. sanctions 12 Iran-linked entities accused of plotting attacks and trying to destabilize the country
Britain on Monday sanctioned 12 individuals and entities linked to the Islamic Republic, accusing them of engaging in "hostile activity" including planning attacks and providing financial services to groups seeking to destabilize the UK and other countries. This includes asset freezes, travel bans, and orders to revoke management authority.
Britain on Monday sanctioned 12 individuals and entities linked to Iran, accusing them of involvement in hostile activity, including plotting attacks and providing financial services to groups seeking to destabilize the UK and other countries.
Iran War: Tehran warns of an "immediate response" in the event of French and British deployment in the Strait of Hormuz
Iran warns UK, France against naval moves in Strait of Hormuz
Macron on Iran: I think there is a lot of verbal tension that always leads to physical escalation. And the most vulnerable people on the planet are its first victims, but today we are all victims of what is happening. Our fellow citizens in France also pay the price every day for this war that we did not want. / Choice
France’s Macron on Iranian alert against French, UK warships: No plan for deployment, prepared to support international mission
FRANCE'S MACRON ON IRANIAN ALERT AGAINST FRENCH & UK WARSHIPS: NO DEPLOYMENT PLANS BUT PREPARED TO SUPPORT INTERNATIONAL MISSION ...
FRANCE'S MACRON ON IRANIAN ALERT AGAINST FRENCH & UK WARSHIPS: NO DEPLOYMENT PLANS BUT PREPARED TO SUPPORT INTERNATIONAL MISSION
FRANCE'S MACRON, ON IRANIAN WARNING AGAINST FRENCH/UK WARSHIPS, SAYS NO QUESTION OF DEPLOYMENT, STANDING READY TO HELP INTERNATIONAL MISSION
LIVE Iran warns of an "immediate response" in the event of a French and British deployment in the Strait of Hormuz
Iran warns France, UK of 'immediate response' to any Hormuz deployment — AFP
Iran warns of an "immediate response" in the event of a French and British deployment in the Strait of Hormuz
ALERT: Iran warns France, UK of 'immediate response' to any Hormuz deployment
Iran: Gharibabadi: We advise France, Britain, and any country sending ships to support illegal US actions not to further complicate the situation.
French Foreign Minister: We strongly oppose attacks on civilian infrastructure Reuters quoted the French Foreign Minister as saying: I hope Trump does not carry out his threat against Iran. We strongly oppose attacks that target civilian infrastructure. Get the latest news: Site | Ita | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
German Chancellor: The Iran war has affected us all and our economy
United Kingdom: British Prime Minister: There is no assessment to suggest that we are targeted by Iran and our priority is protecting British interests.
The UK has approved the use of its bases for the US to launch strikes on Iranian sites targeting the Strait of Hormuz
Britain greenlights U.S. use of its bases for strikes on Iranian sites targeting Strait of Hormuz
UK agrees to let US use bases for strikes on Iranian sites targeting Strait of Hormuz
The Times: Britain agrees to US use RF Fairford and Diego Garcia bases to carry out strikes against Iranian targets
Britain has given the US the green light to use RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia to carry out raids on Iranian missile sites that are attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz - reports in the UK
EU LEADERS: STRONGLY CONDEMN IRAN’S INDISCRIMINATE STRIKES AND EXPRESS SOLIDARITY WITH AFFECTED COUNTRIES
#Breaking | Statement from Britain, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan: We call on Iran to stop laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz
Statement from Britain, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan: We are ready to contribute to ensuring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.