Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Resolved1as of
This hub tracks 1 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Taiwan says budget delay risks 'rupture' in line of defence against China
Taiwan says budget delay risks 'rupture' in line of defence against China
Taiwan Defence Minister: Budget failure could signal to U.S. that citizens don’t back self-defence.
If the Financial Times report is true, and the US sells $20 billion worth of weapons to Taiwan, it will certainly trigger a very serious crisis. At that time, it's hard to believe that mainland China will simply conduct another island-encircling military exercise; I am more…
China to support 'reunification forces' in Taiwan, go after 'separatists'
Taiwan rebuffs U.S. push to absorb 40% of its chip supply chain-CNBC
China steps up dangerous air encounters near Taiwan-ft
China reduced military flights into a sensitive area near Taiwan last month, an indication Beijing is tweaking its training focus
Taiwan says 40% shift of chip capacity to US is 'impossible'
China has warned the US that moving ahead with new arms sales to Taiwan could derail President Trumps planned April 2026 visit to Beijing-FT
Beijing’s rapidly advancing spying operations have seen agents penetrate the island’s armed forces, enticing personnel to pledge allegiance to China
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.