Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?
Resolved22as of
This hub tracks 22 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
12 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
NEW: Public First, pro-safety AI Anthropic-backed group, is going in “big” to support @Scott_Wiener in his race to replace Pelosi, per source. Wiener is in tough 3-way contest and the big AI PACs had stayed away from the race. LTF hast gotten involved yet • • Txt subs got first!
Scott Wiener, a 6'7" tall California state senator running to succeed Nancy Pelosi in the House, is out with a new ad called "The Giraffe" and, well, I just think you need to watch it for yourself...
Nancy Pelosi plans to endorse Jack Schlossberg, JFK's grandson, for US House seat.
Nancy Pelosi plans to endorse Jack Schlossberg, JFK's grandson, for US House seat.
Nancy Pelosi plans to endorse Jack Schlossberg, JFK's grandson, for US House seat.
Nancy Pelosi plans to endorse Jack Schlossberg, JFK's grandson, for US House seat.
Nancy Pelosi plans to endorse Jack Schlossberg, JFK's grandson, for US House seat.
Nancy Pelosi plans to endorse Jack Schlossberg, JFK's grandson, for US House seat.
Nancy Pelosi plans to endorse Jack Schlossberg, JFK's grandson, for US House seat.
Nancy Pelosi plans to endorse Jack Schlossberg, JFK's grandson, for US House seat.
Nancy Pelosi plans to endorse Jack Schlossberg, JFK's grandson, for US House seat.
Nancy Pelosi plans to endorse Jack Schlossberg, JFK's grandson, for US House seat.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.