Who will be the next Speaker of the Knesset?

OpenOutcomes123as of

Market pricing makes Yair Lapid the favorite at 55% across 123 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

9 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

Thus, the way was paved for replacing Amir Ohana from his position as Knesset Speaker with Yair Lapid (unless Eisenkot decides to refuse) [in reply to: Lieberman: We will support Lapid for Knesset Speaker. He asked me to support him]
Thus, the way was paved for replacing Amir Ohana from his position as Knesset Speaker with Yair Lapid (unless Eisenkot decides to refuse) [in reply to: Lieberman: We will support Lapid for Knesset Speaker. He asked me to support him]
Thus, the way was paved for Amir Ohana to be replaced as Knesset Speaker by Yair Lapid (unless Eisenkot decides to refuse).
Thus, the way was paved for Amir Ohana to be replaced as Knesset Speaker by Yair Lapid (unless Eisenkot decides to refuse).
Yair LapidAl Jazeera92%match
Israeli Broadcasting Authority: Lieberman announces he will recommend Gadi Eisenkot to form the government and Yair Lapid for Knesset speakership
Israeli media: Lieberman will recommend Eisenkot to form the government and Yair Lapid to assume the position of Knesset Speaker
Yair Lapiddaphnaliel91%match
Lieberman - The world will turn upside down. I will not sit with Netanyahu even if he offers me to be first in the rotation. Also on the issue of a minority government - we have made it clear and I have written several times, it will not happen. We will recommend Gadi Eisenkot to impose the mandate (even though he ran the most egotistical campaign there is) and I will support Yair Lapid's candidacy for the position of Knesset Speaker.
Lieberman: Yair Lapid told me that he wants to be Speaker of the Knesset, we will support Lapid's candidacy for the position of Speaker of the Knesset.
Amir OhanaAxios Reporter96%match91¢-8%
Opinion: With all my passion and longing for a unity government, I think the move to replace the Knesset Speaker is appropriate and necessary. The Likud is not interested in a unity government, is not willing to give up anything, and is trying to drag the system into more elections. Amir Ohana took pride in being a political actor, and explained that "politics is not a dirty word." Therefore, the political majority should choose a speaker. In my personal opinion, he should be as moderate and statesmanlike as possible, but the move itself is in any case very legitimate.

What is this event about?

Following the Israeli legislative election scheduled for October 27, 2026, the 26th Knesset is set to hold an internal election for the position of Speaker of the Knesset. This market will resolve according to the name of the candidate that becomes Speaker of the Knesset as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Speakers appointed before the election will not count. If this election does not take place or the results of this election are not known by February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No speaker by Feb 28". This market will resolve based on official information from the Knesset or a consensus of credible reporting.

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