Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?
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Market pricing makes Andy Beshear the favorite at 89% across 71 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
Andy Beshear89%
Gavin Newsom77%
Rahm Emanuel74%
Josh Shapiro66%
Wes Moore66%
Jon Ossoff62%
Mark Kelly57%
Cory Booker56%
Jared Polis37%
Phil Murphy22%
Mark Cuban19%
Jon Stewart18%
Roy Cooper14%
Liz Cheney14%
LeBron James11%
Tim Walz9%
All further outcomes (41 more):
Hunter Biden · George Clooney · Chelsea Clinton · MrBeast · Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson · Oprah Winfrey · Andrew Yang · Beto O’Rourke · Kim Kardashian · Donald Trump · J.D. Vance · Marco Rubio · Tulsi Gabbard · Glenn Youngkin · Donald Trump Jr. · Ron DeSantis · Nikki Haley · Vivek Ramaswamy · Sarah Huckabee Sanders · Greg Abbott · Brian Kemp · Byron Donalds · Elise Stefanik · Josh Hawley · Ted Cruz · Elon Musk · Matt Gaetz · Katie Britt · John Thune · Kristi Noem · Mike Pence · Tucker Carlson · Robert F. Kennedy Jr. · Ivanka Trump · Tom Brady · Rand Paul · Steve Bannon · Erika Kirk · Marjorie Taylor Greene · Don Lemon · Candace Owens
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
The Wall Street Journal revealed that Doug Emhoff, husband of former US Vice President Kamala Harris, told close associates that he would prefer she not run for president in 2028. Harris has not yet made a final decision on her candidacy, but she has begun preliminary steps, including contacting major donors, hiring staff, and visiting swing states to support the Democrats. However, there is debate within the Democratic Party about her return to the race, as a number of its leaders and those close to her believe it is necessary to field a new candidate in the 2028 election, after her loss to Trump in 2024.
Josh Shapiro refuses to commit to finishing term as governor — similar to another 2028 hopeful
Live: Sen. Raphael Warnock launching midterm blitz that includes 2028 early primary states
From Andy Beshear’s book tour stop in DC tonight, moderated by Wes Moore: • - Standing ovation after Beshear says he’s “not sure” he’s done w/ running for office • - Beshear, w/ a glance at Moore: “We may have a lot of great candidates” • - Moore: “Your voice is going to be necessary” going forward • - Beshear: “Based on the time we’ve been here tonight, I think we’d make a pretty good team”
2028 alert: Big standing ovation for Andy Beshear when he says he told his wife he would never have to run for office again after winning reelection in Kentucky • "Sitting here today I'm not sure that's true"
Asaf Rosenzweig
Progressive Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Ortiz said in an interview with The New York Times that she will decide after the midterm elections whether to run for president in 2028 or to run for the Senate seat currently occupied by senior Senator Chuck Schumer, the Democratic minority leader in the Senate.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to Decide After Midterms Whether to Run for U.S. Senate or President in 2028 — NYT
Exclusive: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on 2028: ‘Life Doesn’t Wait for You to Be Ready’
WOULDN'T BET ON IT KAMALA HARRIS' FORMER AIDES SAY 2028 RUN OFF THE TABLE
Gavin Newsom’s vow not to run against Kamala Harris branded ‘impossible to believe’
California Governor Makes Clear on 2028: He Won't Run Against Harris if She Decides to Run for President ======== California Governor Gavin Newsom confirmed that he will not run for president in 2028 if Kamala Harris decides to run. Newsom's stance came during an interview with CNN, where he described competing with Harris for the Democratic nomination as a waste of time. Newsom had previously hinted at the possibility of running for president, but said he was not ready for the 2024 election and was evaluating his position regarding 2028. Kamala Harris has said she is considering running in the 2028 election, but has not yet officially confirmed her entry into the race. Newsom's statements reshape the landscape of the Democratic Party's 2028 nomination race.
California Governor Makes His Stance on 2028: He Won't Run Against Harris if She Decides to Run for President ======== California Governor Gavin Newsom confirmed that he will not run for president in 2028 if Kamala Harris decides to run. Newsom's stance came during an interview with CNN, where he considered competing with Harris for the Democratic nomination a waste of time. Newsom had previously hinted at the possibility of running for president, but said he was not ready for the 2024 election and was evaluating his position regarding 2028. Kamala Harris said she is considering running in the 2028 election, but has not yet officially confirmed her entry into the race. Newsom's statements reshape the landscape of the Democratic Party's competition for the 2028 nomination.
"I won't run if she does": Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democratic hopeful for 2028, assures that he will step aside if Kamala Harris is a candidate.
USA: Gavin Newsom will not run if Kamala Harris is a candidate
Gavin Newsom: I will not run for president of the United States if Kamala Harris enters the race.
Live: Gavin Newsom says he won’t run for president in 2028 if Kamala Harris does
Live: Gavin Newsom tells CNN he won't run in 2028 if Kamala Harris does because 'the zen diagram on that is just pure crossover'
Gavin Newsom says he won’t run for president in 2028 if Kamala Harris does
Gavin Newsom Says He Won’t Run in 2028 if Kamala Harris Does
California Governor Gavin Newsom Launches Early Campaign for 2028 by Distributing "Gavin 2028" Buttons and Banners California's Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom is seeking a run in the 2028 US presidential election. According to a report published by ABC News, Gavin's campaign launched early, coinciding with the midterm elections in America, by distributing "Gavin 2028" buttons and banners. The network indicated that California represents a political burden for Gavin, especially since it has produced a long list of candidates who have failed to reach the White House since the victory of its former governor, Ronald Reagan. Newsom does not rule out the possibility of announcing his decision to run for the US presidential election before the end of this year.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.
A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.