Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?

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Market pricing makes Ted Cruz the favorite at 78% across 71 tracked outcomes, as of .

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

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3 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

Tucker Carlson has said privately he has no interest in running for president, but those close to him say he could change his mind if JD Vance doesn’t run and Trump were to endorse someone like Rubio:
MTG tells Playbook Tucker Carlson won't run for president:
Tucker Carlson went on a livestream tonight to reveal his plan for what "America should be." • • Last night Carlson posted a photo of himself at table along with MTG and Massie among others and said: "MAGA was betrayed. We all were. It's time for a new path forward. More tomorrow night at 6 PM ET on • • There are reports of a new coalition of high-profile MAGA figures launching a movement with the aim of running a third party-candidate in the 2028 presidential election.

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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