Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?Kamala Harris
Open$4Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 51% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES51¢
NO49¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
The Wall Street Journal revealed that Doug Emhoff, husband of former US Vice President Kamala Harris, told close associates that he would prefer she not run for president in 2028. Harris has not yet made a final decision on her candidacy, but she has begun preliminary steps, including contacting major donors, hiring staff, and visiting swing states to support the Democrats. However, there is debate within the Democratic Party about her return to the race, as a number of its leaders and those close to her believe it is necessary to field a new candidate in the 2028 election, after her loss to Trump in 2024.
Where does the news lean?
1YES1NO12neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 62% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.
A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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