Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?Gavin Newsom
Open$7Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 77% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES77¢
NO24¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
California Governor Makes His Stance on 2028: He Won't Run Against Harris if She Decides to Run for President ======== California Governor Gavin Newsom confirmed that he will not run for president in 2028 if Kamala Harris decides to run. Newsom's stance came during an interview with CNN, where he considered competing with Harris for the Democratic nomination a waste of time. Newsom had previously hinted at the possibility of running for president, but said he was not ready for the 2024 election and was evaluating his position regarding 2028. Kamala Harris said she is considering running in the 2028 election, but has not yet officially confirmed her entry into the race. Newsom's statements reshape the landscape of the Democratic Party's competition for the 2028 nomination.
Where does the news lean?
2YES9NO11neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.
A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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