Who will advance from the California Governor primary?
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This hub tracks 36 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
All further outcomes (6 more):
Ryan Tillman · Leonard Jackson · Nicholas Thompson · Nicki Minaj · Matt Mahan · Elaine Culotti
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra has moved into a narrow lead in California's crowded race for governor, edging Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Tom Steyer in a new survey released Wednesday. MORE:
Wow. That Xavier Becerra interview was rough. Empty suits everywhere can file a group libel claim against him. • • Look, CA Dems, write in Anne Gust. The former First Lady of California ran her husband Jerry Brown’s office (and the state) as well as possible with a nutty legislature. Demand her return.
Pete Aguilar, who hasn't endorsed in #CAGov, shares some pretty warm words for his former House colleague Xavier Becerra. • • "As I've said before, Xavier Becerra is immensely qualified for the position. I think he's separating from the field."
Alejandro Mayorkas declined to endorse his former Biden Cabinet colleague Xavier Becerra for governor on Tuesday, telling POLITICO “there are many qualified individuals in the California race.”
Another poll finds Xavier Becerra (D) more firmly holding the 2nd top-two spot in California. • • He now sits at about 19% in DDHQ's #CAGov polling average, just behind Steve Hilton (R) at 21%. • • Tom Steyer (D) is in third with 14%, followed by Chad Bianco (R) with 13%.
Another poll finds Xavier Becerra (D) more firmly holding the 2nd top-two spot in California. • • He now sits at about 19% in DDHQ's #CAGov polling average, just behind Steve Hilton (R) at 21%. • • Tom Steyer (D) is in third with 14%, followed by Chad Bianco (R) with 13%.
CA voters face a ballot w/61 names. Steve Hilton is front-runner and had the sunny optimism and experience to lead what is approaching a failed state after 16 years of Democratic rule including supermajorities. Becerra, Steyer and Porter —the bland, the unlikeable and the toxic— vying for second place. Chad Bianco not out of it. But even though election “day” is June 2, CA’s counting is so screwed up we will be lucky to know second place by July.
Six candidates, including four Democrats and two Republicans, will participate in California's first major gubernatorial debate since Eric Swalwell exited the race. • • More Here →
Will Xavier Becerra’s past come back to haunt him in California governor’s race?
Democrat Betty Yee drops out of crowded California governor's race
Inbox: Rep. Robert Garcia, the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, endorses Katie Porter for California governor. • • “Katie Porter is a fighter and a strong progressive who is ready to defend California against Trump on day one … I’m proud to call Katie a mentor.”
GOP’s Steve Hilton surges in California governor race, leads by 17 points in new poll | @MorningsMaria @FoxBusiness
#CAGov watch: EMILYs List is circulating a memo arguing Katie Porter (their endorsed candidate) is best positioned to win amid Eric Swalwell’s exit. • • "It is time to elect the first woman Governor in California. Katie Porter is the most-prepared candidate to meet this moment"
Xavier Becerra and Matt Mahan have qualified for California's gubernatorial primary debate after Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race. • • More Here →
Xavier Becerra and Matt Mahan have qualified for California's gubernatorial primary debate after Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race. • • More Here →
Betty Yee surge incoming
Gavin Newsom sets August 2026 special election to fill Eric Swalwell's vacant congressional seat
California gubernatorial candidate Eric Swalwell has withdrawn from the June primary election following allegations of sexual assault and impropriety. • • More Here →
Eric Swalwell’s exit adds fresh uncertainty to California governor’s race
Eric Swalwell's exit adds fresh uncertainty to California governor's race
On Sunday, Eric Swalwell dropped out of the #CAGov following allegations of sexual misconduct. • • Where will California voters go from here? Up to this point, Swalwell had led among Democratic candidates in DDHQ's polling average. • • The primary is June 2. • •
Why Eric Swalwell was forced to quit California governor’s race after sexual misconduct allegations
U.S. Rep Eric Swalwell, the leading Democratic candidate for California Governor, has suspended his campaign following multiple sexual assault allegations.
U.S. Representative Eric Swalwell announced on Sunday he is suspending his campaign for California governor. • • More Here →
Congressman Eric Swalwell drops out of California governor's race amid abuse claims
Eric Swalwell ends bid for California governor amid sexual assault allegations
NEW: Eric Swalwell drops out of the race for California governor @axios
Eric Swalwell suspends campaign for California governor amid sexual misconduct allegations
BREAKING: California governor candidate Eric Swalwell has announced he is suspending his campaign.
What is this event about?
The non-partisan primary election for Governor of California is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. The top two candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of California.
This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of California. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
If no 2026 California gubernatorial primary takes place by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of California as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, specifically the Office of the Secretary of State.