Which countries will sign the US x Iran deal by June 30?
Resolved11as of
This hub tracks 11 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Israeli media: Maariv: The agreement with Lebanon looks good on paper, but in reality, the chances of its implementation are slim.
Lebanon's agreement with the Zionist regime is in Netanyahu's favor Shahab News Agency: "Firas Yaghi," an expert on the Zionist regime, referred to the agreement signed between the pro-Western Lebanese government and the Zionist regime, saying its goal was to strengthen Netanyahu's position and said: "This agreement is more of an American-Israeli agreement." @IRNA_1313
Washington Post: US to send ground troops to Lebanon According to a report by the Washington Post, the US Department of War (Pentagon) is preparing to send US ground troops to Lebanon. The move is aimed at implementing the recent and controversial US-brokered agreement between Lebanon and Israel that calls for the disarmament of Hezbollah. The Washington Post reported on Tuesday, citing US officials, that US forces will be stationed on Lebanese soil to monitor Lebanon and Israel's compliance with the agreement. According to the report, US forces will also be stationed in Israeli-occupied territories. The newspaper added that US Central Command (CENTCOM) officials will report any violations of the so-called ceasefire agreement directly to the Trump administration. However, the report notes that Admiral Brad Cooper, the commander of CENTCOM, will not play a direct role in overseeing the agreement. The agreement, signed last week in Washington, commits the Lebanese army to oversee the disarmament of Hezbollah and other “non-state armed groups” before Israel’s phased withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has rejected the agreement as “null and void,” warning that attempts to impose it could spark internal unrest. Hezbollah’s secretary-general has instead called for the implementation of a memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States, the first clause of which calls for a permanent cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon.
Al-Jumhuriya: Implementation test precedes any political settlement... Lebanon adheres to the agreement's roadmap
Assaf Rosenzweig
Report in the Wall Street Journal: The US and Saudi Arabia are in a state of tension unseen in their relationship for years. Washington is considering reducing the security presence in the kingdom after Saudi Arabia torpedoed President Trump's "Operation Freedom" after just one day, after imposing restrictions on the use of American bases on its territory. In response, the US is threatening to stop the shipment of interceptor missiles to Saudi Arabia.
What is this event about?
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if an authorized representative of the listed country signs the agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The “agreement announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, 2026” includes any later-modified version that is publicly identified by credible reporting as a successor version of the same agreement.
The agreement must be signed by an authorized representative of the listed country, acting on behalf of the listed country, including by signing a copy of the agreement or another signature page that forms part of the agreement.
Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.