Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
Resolved19as of
This hub tracks 19 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Al-Busaidi: We had good talks with Gharibabadi Oman Foreign Minister: We had good talks with Gharibabadi, which reflected the constructive nature of the Oman-Iran talks. We once again emphasized the importance of diplomatic engagement in all areas. Oman will continue to support efforts to reduce tensions, promote peaceful regional coexistence, security and freedom of navigation. @YjcNewsChannel [in reply to: Gharibabadi conveyed Araqchi's message to Omani Foreign Minister During the visit of Iran's high-ranking diplomatic and legal delegation to Oman, the Iranian Foreign Minister's verbal message was conveyed to his Omani counterpart. In this meeting, which was held in the presence of Kazem Gharibabadi, Deputy Foreign Minister for International Affairs, the issue of Iran-US talks mediated by Pakistan and efforts to make this diplomatic path successful were discussed Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs for Legal and International Affairs: This message was presented within the framework of continuous consultations and positive cooperation between the two neighboring countries in various fields and addresses the ongoing talks between Iran and the United States, which are being held through the mediation of Pakistan, as well as the efforts made to ensure the success of these talks. After this meeting, a detailed meeting was held between the Omani and Iranian delegations to review a set of principles governing the passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, while respecting the security and national sovereignty of the coastal states of this strait and in light of the applicable rules of international law. Sheikh Khalifa bin Ali Al-Harithi, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Oman for Political Affairs, and a number of officials from both sides were present at this meeting. @YjcNewsChannel]
Trump told Arab and Muslim leaders on Saturday's call that ending the Iran war should be followed by joining the Abraham Accords and normalizing with Israel. Several were caught off guard. • • - A Saudi-Israeli deal remains Trump's primary goal • MBS has stepped back from his earlier openness to normalization • - Saudi Arabia is insisting on a commitment to Palestinian statehood as a precondition • - Israel refuses • • The problem: the Iran war may have produced the opposite effect. Iran attacked the UAE precisely because of its ties to Israel. Gulf states now have a very live example of what alignment with Israel costs them. If anything, the war has pushed the Gulf closer to Tehran, not further from it. • • Trump is trying to close the Iran war and the Abraham Accords in the same move. The regional math no longer adds up. • • Source: Axios
Trump told Arab and Muslim leaders on Saturday's call that ending the Iran war should be followed by joining the Abraham Accords and normalizing with Israel. Several were caught off guard. • • - A Saudi-Israeli deal remains Trump's primary goal • MBS has stepped back from his earlier openness to normalization • - Saudi Arabia is insisting on a commitment to Palestinian statehood as a precondition • - Israel refuses • • The problem: the Iran war may have produced the opposite effect. Iran attacked the UAE precisely because of its ties to Israel. Gulf states now have a very live example of what alignment with Israel costs them. If anything, the war has pushed the Gulf closer to Tehran, not further from it. • • Trump is trying to close the Iran war and the Abraham Accords in the same move. The regional math no longer adds up. • • Source: Axios
Pakistan hopes to host fresh talks ‘very soon’ as Trump says US-Iran nearing peace deal
Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al-Busaid wrote on X-Net that he had spoken with the Deputy Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic in Oman. He added: "We once again emphasized the importance of diplomatic engagement in all fields."
Oman and Iran emphasize the importance of reducing tensions in the region Oman Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi announced in a message a conversation with the Deputy Foreign Minister of Iran and said that in this consultation we emphasized the importance of reducing tensions in the region. nournews.ir @Nournews_IR
Good discussions with Iran’s Deputy FM @Gharibabadi reflecting the constructive nature of Oman-Iran dialogue. We reaffirmed the importance of diplomatic engagement on all fronts. Oman will continue supporting efforts to reduce tension, advance peaceful regional coexistence, security and freedom of navigation.
Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al Busaidi: We held good discussions with Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi, reflecting the constructive nature of the dialogue between the Sultanate of Oman and Iran. We emphasized the importance of diplomatic engagement at all levels. Oman will continue to support efforts aimed at reducing tensions, promoting regional peace and coexistence, security, and freedom of navigation.
Al Jazeera correspondent Ali Hashem: Less than 24 hours after optimism about the possibility of an understanding between Iran and the United States emerged, negative signs have arrived. An informed Iranian source says that signs of the United States' retreat are visible on two main issues: the mechanism for releasing Iran's assets and the scope of the ceasefire in Lebanon. According to the source, the understanding includes a framework for a ceasefire in Lebanon, but the Israeli regime is apparently unhappy with this arrangement and is pressuring Washington to include text that would allow Israel to conduct military operations in Lebanon, justifying it as "a response to any threat." Iran rejects this mechanism and insists on a lasting and permanent ceasefire. Tehran has informed all mediators, including Pakistan, that it will not sign the understanding if all clauses are not fully agreed upon and guaranteed. Pakistan has suggested that the agreed clauses move forward and the disputed issues be postponed, but Iran has rejected this and emphasized that the disputed clauses are fundamental and non-negotiable. The overall picture shows that Tehran increasingly believes that Washington is backing down from previous understandings reached through mediators./Election
U.S. officials say an Iran deal could be signed within days, but warn it is not done yet. • • "We are in a very good place, but there are ways in which the deal can be undermined." • • - Officials are optimistic but acknowledge the agreement has not been finalized • - The deal could still fall apart • • Source: Axios
Good discussions with Iran’s Deputy FM @Gharibabadi reflecting the constructive nature of Oman-Iran dialogue. We reaffirmed the importance of diplomatic engagement on all fronts. Oman will continue supporting efforts to reduce tension, advance peaceful regional coexistence, security and freedom of navigation.
The process of forming an initial agreement between Iran and the US could fail Al Jazeera correspondent Ali Hashem: Less than 24 hours after optimism was expressed about the possibility of an understanding between Iran and the US, negative signs have arrived. An informed Iranian source says that signs of US retreat are seen on two main issues: the mechanism for releasing Iran's assets and the scope of the ceasefire in Lebanon. According to this source, the understanding includes a framework for a ceasefire in Lebanon, but the Israeli regime is apparently unhappy with this arrangement and is pressuring Washington to include text that would allow Israel to conduct military operations in Lebanon, justifying it as "a response to any threat." Iran rejects this mechanism and insists on a stable and permanent ceasefire. Tehran has informed all mediators, including Pakistan, that it will not sign the understanding if all clauses are not fully agreed upon and guaranteed. Pakistan has suggested that the agreed clauses move forward and the disputed issues be postponed, but Iran has rejected this and emphasized that the disputed clauses are fundamental and non-negotiable. The overall picture shows that Tehran increasingly believes that Washington is backing down from previous understandings reached through mediators. nournews.ir @Nournews_IR
At the head of a delegation, Iran Deputy Foreign Minister arrived in Muscat & met with Oman's FM Albusaidi to convey a message from FM Araghchi on Pakistan-mediated Iran-US talks. • • They also discussed maritime security & vessel passage in the Strait of Hormuz based on intel law.
Iran and the US are on the verge of an agreement that will deal with the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the extension of the ceasefire. According to sources familiar with the matter - Qatar will be involved in the release of Iranian funds | @gilicohen10 with the details #HereNewsEdition with @TaliMoreno_
I reported in the Kan News edition: Iran and the US are on the verge of an agreement that will lead to the lifting of the naval blockade of Hormuz and the beginning of the lifting of sanctions and the release of Iran's trapped funds. In the second phase of the agreement, the parties are expected to reach another, much more extensive agreement that will deal with nuclear - and the removal of enriched material from Iranian soil. According to sources familiar with the matter - Qatar, and possibly other Gulf countries - will play a very significant role in the agreement and its implementation. Qatar is supposed to take part in the renewed transfer of funds to Iran. According to another source, Trump wants Qatar to also be part of the guarantor for the renewed nuclear agreement. US Senator Lindsey Graham tweeted that Trump is initiating a much broader move, according to which Qatar, but also Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, will be part of the Abraham Accords as part of establishing new agreements in the region. The Saudis have demanded in all the talks that there was a breakthrough on the Palestinian issue. It is doubtful whether this deadline during an election period allows for such a thing.
High-ranking sources told Al-Hadath: The agreement between Tehran and Washington will be announced solely by Pakistan and will be called the "Islamabad Declaration." The initial agreement between Washington and Tehran will be in the form of a "Memorandum of Understanding." Direct negotiations between the two sides will begin on June 5 in Islamabad. The potential initial agreement between Iran and the US will be called the Islamabad Declaration. The initial agreement is a Memorandum of Understanding, which will be followed by negotiations on a final agreement. Pakistan will announce the Memorandum of Understanding without the need for the negotiating parties to be present. The next round of talks between the US and Iran may be held on June 5. Washington and Tehran will send their respective heads of delegations when negotiations on the final agreement begin.
High-ranking sources told Al-Hadath: The agreement between Tehran and Washington will be announced solely by Pakistan and will be called the "Islamabad Declaration." The initial agreement between Washington and Tehran will be in the form of a "Memorandum of Understanding." Direct negotiations between the two sides will begin on June 5 in Islamabad. The potential initial agreement between Iran and the US will be called the Islamabad Declaration. The initial agreement is a Memorandum of Understanding, which will be followed by negotiations on a final agreement. Pakistan will announce the Memorandum of Understanding without the need for the negotiating parties to be present. The next round of talks between the US and Iran may be held on June 5. Washington and Tehran will send their respective heads of delegations when negotiations on the final agreement begin.
High-ranking sources told Al-Arabiya: The agreement between Tehran and Washington will be announced solely by Pakistan and will be called the "Islamabad Declaration." The initial agreement between Washington and Tehran will be in the form of a "Memorandum of Understanding." Direct negotiations between the two sides will begin on June 5 in Islamabad. The potential initial agreement between Iran and the US will be called the Islamabad Declaration. The initial agreement is a Memorandum of Understanding that will be followed by negotiations on a final agreement. Pakistan will announce the Memorandum of Understanding without the need for the negotiating parties to be present. The next round of talks between the US and Iran may be held on June 5. Washington and Tehran will send their respective heads of delegations when negotiations on the final agreement begin.
High-ranking sources told Al-Arabiya: The agreement between Tehran and Washington will be announced solely by Pakistan and will be called the "Islamabad Declaration." The initial agreement between Washington and Tehran will be in the form of a "Memorandum of Understanding." Direct negotiations between the two sides will begin on June 5 in Islamabad. The potential initial agreement between Iran and the US will be called the Islamabad Declaration. The initial agreement is a Memorandum of Understanding that will be followed by negotiations on a final agreement. Pakistan will announce the Memorandum of Understanding without the need for the negotiating parties to be present. The next round of talks between the US and Iran may be held on June 5. Washington and Tehran will send their respective heads of delegations when negotiations on the final agreement begin.
Kazem Gharibabadi, Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs: During my visit to the Sultanate of Oman at the head of a diplomatic and legal delegation, I met with His Excellency the Foreign Minister, Mr. Badr bin Hamad bin Hamoud Al Busaidi, and delivered to him the verbal message from the Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi. This message was delivered within the framework of the ongoing consultations and fruitful cooperation between the two neighboring countries in various fields, and it addresses the ongoing Iranian-American talks mediated by Pakistan, and the efforts being made to ensure their success. Following this meeting, a detailed meeting was held between the Omani and Iranian delegations to review a set of principles regulating the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, taking into account the security and sovereignty of the littoral states, and in light of the applicable rules of international law. The meeting was attended by His Excellency Sheikh Khalifa bin Ali Al Harthy, Deputy Foreign Minister of Oman for Political Affairs, and a number of officials from both sides.
Iran reports: "US blocks some of the clauses in the memorandum of understanding - it may be canceled"
Iran reports: "US blocks some of the clauses in the memorandum of understanding - it may be canceled"
Strait of Hormuz on the agenda as ministers from Oman and Iran meet
Al Jazeera correspondent Ali Hashem: Less than 24 hours after optimism about the possibility of an understanding between Iran and the United States was raised, negative signs have arrived. An informed Iranian source says that signs of US retreat are seen on two main issues: the mechanism for releasing Iranian assets and the scope of the ceasefire in Lebanon. According to the source, the understanding includes a framework for a ceasefire in Lebanon, but the Israeli regime is apparently unhappy with this arrangement and is pressuring Washington to include text that would allow Israel to conduct military operations in Lebanon, justifying it as a "response to any threat." Iran rejects this mechanism and insists on a permanent and stable ceasefire. Tehran has informed all mediators, including Pakistan, that it will not sign the understanding unless all clauses are fully agreed upon and guaranteed. Pakistan has suggested that the agreed clauses go forward and the disputed issues be postponed, but Iran has rejected this and stressed that the disputed clauses are fundamental and non-negotiable. The overall picture shows that Tehran increasingly believes that Washington is backing down from previous understandings reached through mediators./Election
#Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi met with Oman's Foreign Minister in Muscat and conveyed Araqchi's verbal message regarding Iran-US talks mediated by Pakistan. The two sides also reviewed the principles governing the passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz based on security, national sovereignty, and international law.
Less than 24 hours after optimism emerged around a possible Iran-US memorandum, negative vibes are already surfacing. • A well-informed Iranian source tells me there are signs of U.S. retreat on two central issues: the mechanism for unfreezing Iranian assets, and the scope of a ceasefire in Lebanon. • According to the source, the memorandum includes a Lebanon ceasefire framework, but Israel is reportedly uncomfortable with the arrangement and is pushing Washington to include language allowing it to carry out military operations in Lebanon under the justification of responding to “any threat.” Iran is rejecting that formulation and insisting on a sustainable and lasting ceasefire. • Tehran has informed all mediators, including Pakistan, that it will not sign the memorandum unless all clauses are fully agreed and guaranteed. Pakistan reportedly suggested moving forward with agreed sections while postponing contentious points, but Iran rejected that approach, insisting the disputed clauses are fundamental and non-negotiable. • The overall picture suggests Tehran increasingly views Washington as backing away from earlier understandings reached through mediators.
The US and Iran reported progress in talks on a possible agreement US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced "significant progress" in talks with Iran, emphasizing that final agreements have not yet been reached. According to American media, the deal under discussion could include a 60-day ceasefire extension, the restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and talks on Iran's nuclear program. There is no official confirmation of all the details yet.
A US official told Fox News: Iran has offered serious concessions we haven't seen before on the nuclear issue. Our plan is to address all of Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium. If the Iranians make concessions on enrichment, we will ease sanctions. We don't believe imposing fees in the Strait of Hormuz is an acceptable outcome. We are making progress toward signing an agreement with Iran.
A US official told Fox News: Iran has offered serious concessions we haven't seen before on the nuclear issue. Our plan is to address all of Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium. If the Iranians make concessions on enrichment, we will ease sanctions. We don't believe imposing fees in the Strait of Hormuz is an acceptable outcome. We are making progress toward signing an agreement with Iran.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.