Vote winner in Alaska Senate primary final round?
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Market pricing makes Mary Peltola the favorite at 100% across 22 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
Mary Peltola100%
Candidate D50%
Candidate B50%
Candidate A50%
Candidate C50%
Other50%
Candidate E50%
Sid Hill0%
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Democrat David Leslie is back in the top four for #AKSEN — by 43 votes — after the latest batch of results:
Man with Sen. Dan Sullivan's name advances from Alaska U.S. Senate primary
Alaska’s Senate race will feature two Dan Sullivans and Mary Peltola, CNN projects
Rpt: Retired Teacher Dan J. Sullivan to Advance to General Election for U.S. Senate in Alaska - NBC Projects
Rpt: Retired Teacher Dan J. Sullivan to Advance to General Election for U.S. Senate in Alaska - NBC Projects
Retired Teacher Dan J. Sullivan to Advance to General Election for U.S. Senate in Alaska - AP Projects
Retired Teacher Dan J. Sullivan to Advance to General Election for U.S. Senate in Alaska - NBC Projects
Ex-mayor Dan Sullivan supports incumbent Dan Sullivan’s Senate bid against third Dan Sullivan
Ex-mayor Dan Sullivan supports incumbent Dan Sullivan’s Senate bid against third Dan Sullivan
MORNING GLORY: Alaska’s 'real' Senator Dan Sullivan stood up over challenger
MORNING GLORY: Alaska’s 'real' Senator Dan Sullivan stood up over challenger
The OTHER Dan Sullivan (2Dan2Sullivan?) is projected to advance to the General Election in AK-SEN. • • His candidacy could play a spoiler role in November, especially if the race is tight (he garnered 3k+ votes last night).
Mary Peltola, in her first general election ad: • • "There's only one thing that matters to me: getting the job done for Alaska. And I'll take on anyone, including Democrats, anyone in the Lower 48, who doesn't understand what Alaska needs."
Live: Republican senator Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola advance in Alaska Senate primary
Republican senator Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola advance in Alaska Senate primary
In Alaska’s Tuesday primary, @SenDanSullivan easily cleared the primary bar to the finals in November, and Dirty Trick Dan Sullivan is in a very distant third. • • Expect between 150,000–180,000 more voters in November. • • The key numbers are: • • The 2026 primary: The current statewide count is around 109,000 ballots, and the final number should rise as absentee ballots are counted. The 2026 primary has been unusually competitive and early voting was running ahead of 2024. • • 2024 general: 340,981 Alaskans voted. • • 2024 primary: 108,906 voted. • • 2022 general, 267,047 voted. • • 2022 primary: roughly 190,000 participated because the Senate and gubernatorial races generated unusually high primary interest. • • B/c of Alaska’s bizarre “four finalists/ranked choice rules,” the real @SenDanSullivan will have to run hard through the final tape and what should be a safe seat will be a “Lean R” seat but President Trump will himself lean into a state in which he carried by 13% two years ago, and Rep. Mary Peltola will present a distant “Hail Mary” hope for Dems, so money will flood to her. • • Real Dan Sullivan will need lots of small donors as well to continue the effort to educate voters about Dirty Trick Dan Sullivan and how to manage the ranked voting rules:
Live: GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola advance to battleground Senate election in Alaska
Sen. Dan Sullivan, Mary Peltola advance in Alaska Senate primary
Live: With 73% of the votes counted in Alaska , it appears that the November election for US Senate will include a showdown between Mary Peltola , former Democratic c
Live: Democrat Mary Peltola and incumbent Dan Sullivan lead in Alaska primary for US Senate
Live: Democrat Mary Peltola and Republican Dan Sullivan lead in Alaska primary for US Senate – US politics live
Live: At an aviation museum in Anchorage, Senator Dan Sullivan celebrated advancing to the general election and portrayed himself as a grass-roots candidate focused on local issues, while accusing “D.C. Democrats” and “Lower 48 liberals” of funding his opponent, Mary Peltola. Sullivan is also benefiting from significant spending by Republicans outside Alaska. He criticized Peltola’s recent staff shake-up, saying “My campaign’s not melting down like some other campaigns.”
Retired Teacher Dan J. Sullivan to Advance to General Election for U.S. Senate in Alaska - Ddhq Projects
Sen. Dan Sullivan, Mary Peltola advance to general election in Alaska. See live results.
Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola advance in all-party primary in Alaska
Live: GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan advances to Alaska Senate general election
Live: GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan advances to Alaska Senate general election
Live: Democrat Mary Peltola advances to Alaska Senate general election
Live: As expected, Mary Peltola and Senator Dan Sullivan easily advanced. It’s still early, but Dan J. Sullivan, a retired teacher whom Republicans have accused of entering the race as a spoiler, is leading the lesser-known candidates competing for the remaining two spots on the four-person ballot.
Live: As expected, Mary Peltola and Senator Dan Sullivan easily advanced. It’s still early, but Dan J. Sullivan, a retired teacher whom Republicans have accused of entering the race as a spoiler, is leading the lesser-known candidates competing for the remaining two spots on the four-person ballot.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the winner of most votes in the final reported round of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate primary election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for August 18, 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Senator from Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections.