Vote winner in Alaska Senate primary final round?Sen. Dan S. Sullivan
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The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
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21 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NOReuters98%match99¢+1%
Rpt: Retired Teacher Dan J. Sullivan to Advance to General Election for U.S. Senate in Alaska - NBC Projects
Live: Republican senator Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola advance in Alaska Senate primary
Republican senator Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola advance in Alaska Senate primary
In Alaska’s Tuesday primary, @SenDanSullivan easily cleared the primary bar to the finals in November, and Dirty Trick Dan Sullivan is in a very distant third. • • Expect between 150,000–180,000 more voters in November. • • The key numbers are: • • The 2026 primary: The current statewide count is around 109,000 ballots, and the final number should rise as absentee ballots are counted. The 2026 primary has been unusually competitive and early voting was running ahead of 2024. • • 2024 general: 340,981 Alaskans voted. • • 2024 primary: 108,906 voted. • • 2022 general, 267,047 voted. • • 2022 primary: roughly 190,000 participated because the Senate and gubernatorial races generated unusually high primary interest. • • B/c of Alaska’s bizarre “four finalists/ranked choice rules,” the real @SenDanSullivan will have to run hard through the final tape and what should be a safe seat will be a “Lean R” seat but President Trump will himself lean into a state in which he carried by 13% two years ago, and Rep. Mary Peltola will present a distant “Hail Mary” hope for Dems, so money will flood to her. • • Real Dan Sullivan will need lots of small donors as well to continue the effort to educate voters about Dirty Trick Dan Sullivan and how to manage the ranked voting rules:
Live: GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola advance to battleground Senate election in Alaska
Sen. Dan Sullivan, Mary Peltola advance in Alaska Senate primary
Live: At an aviation museum in Anchorage, Senator Dan Sullivan celebrated advancing to the general election and portrayed himself as a grass-roots candidate focused on local issues, while accusing “D.C. Democrats” and “Lower 48 liberals” of funding his opponent, Mary Peltola. Sullivan is also benefiting from significant spending by Republicans outside Alaska. He criticized Peltola’s recent staff shake-up, saying “My campaign’s not melting down like some other campaigns.”
Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola advance in all-party primary in Alaska
Live: GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan advances to Alaska Senate general election
Live: As expected, Mary Peltola and Senator Dan Sullivan easily advanced. It’s still early, but Dan J. Sullivan, a retired teacher whom Republicans have accused of entering the race as a spoiler, is leading the lesser-known candidates competing for the remaining two spots on the four-person ballot.
Dan Sullivan takes first place in Alaska’s U.S. Senate primary
Live: Alaska has reported only about a quarter of its votes, but it’s already clear that Mary Peltola and Dan S. Sullivan will advance to the general election. The other two spots in the state’s top-four primary remain up for grabs, with Daniel J. Sullivan — the candidate who shares the incumbent’s name — leading a field of more than a dozen others.
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Republican Senator Dan Sullivan to Advance to General Election for U.S. Senate in Alaska- NBC Projects
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Republican Senator Dan Sullivan to Advance to General Election for U.S. Senate in Alaska - AP Projects
Live: Republican US Sen. Dan Sullivan advances to general election in Alaska
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Republican Senator Dan Sullivan to Advance to General Election for U.S. Senate in Alaska - Ddhq Projects
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WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican Dan Sullivan advances to the general election for U.S. Senate in Alaska
Live: WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican Dan Sullivan advances to the general election for U.S. Senate in Alaska
GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola advance to battleground Senate election in Alaska
Live: Polls are now closed in most of Alaska, where Senator Dan Sullivan, a Republican, and former Representative Mary Peltola, a Democrat, are expected to easily advance to the four-person general election race for U.S. Senate. The intrigue revolves around who will claim the third and fourth spots — those candidates could be potential spoilers who split votes with the front-runners in November. One of the lesser-known candidates is also named Dan Sullivan; Republicans fear his presence on the ballot in November could confuse voters and harm the sitting senator’s re-election chances.
Senator Dan Sullivan is doing a fantastic job representing the Great State of Alaska! Prior to becoming a very distinguished and Highly Respected Senator, Dan served as State Attorney General and the Commissioner of the Alaska Department of Natural Resources. Dan is a GREAT man, has ALWAYS delivered for Alaska (which I won three times by BIG margins in 2016, 2020, and 2024!), and will continue doing so in the U.S. Senate. No one has done more for Alaska than “TRUMP,” including just securing 11 new Arctic Security Cutter Icebreakers, the first such ships bought in more than 40 years, and Dan Sullivan has been with us all the way. He is fighting hard to Grow our Economy, Lower Taxes, Cut Regulations, Help Secure our VERY Secure (Record Setting!) Border, Champion our Incredible Military/Veterans, Advance American Energy DOMINANCE by helping to keep the price of Gasoline, Oil, and all forms of Energy VERY LOW, and Defend our always under siege Second Amendment. Because of the trickery in the Voting, the Crooked, Radical Left Dumocrats have put up another man named “Dan Sullivan,” and they did this to take Votes away from our Great Senator of the same name. Democrats are trying to “trick” Alaskans, and treat Alaskan Voters with contempt. On Tuesday, August 18th, Alaskans, don’t be fooled. The Senator you want to vote for is: “SULLIVAN, DAN S. — REGISTERED REPUBLICAN/INCUMBENT” “SULLIVAN, DAN S” has my Complete and Total Endorsement for Re-Election – HE WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Where does the news lean?
31YES4NO22neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the winner of most votes in the final reported round of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate primary election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for August 18, 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Senator from Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections.
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