US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal
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Kazem Gharibabadi, Deputy Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic, said in an interview with Al-Arabi Channel on Monday, October 10: "Iran is finalizing its response and will convey the final position through mediators after completing the consultations."
The Deputy Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic also added that Iran's readiness to defend the country and enter war is no less than its readiness to negotiate.
In another part of the interview, Gharibabadi said: "Washington has violated its commitments within the framework of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding and the United States must take steps to compensate for this action. In a situation where Tehran believes that the United States has not fully adhered to its commitments, we cannot expect more flexibility from Iran."
US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant told Fox News on Sunday, October 9, that continuing the blockade and economic pressure for several more months could force the Islamic Republic to back down. The Iranian government is "collapsing" and is even having trouble paying its military.
Besant added that Donald Trump does not expect a new military conflict to occur until at least after the US midterm elections.
The US Treasury Secretary emphasized in this interview that it is not clear how this situation will end and presented three scenarios: a popular uprising, a split and conflict within the Revolutionary Guard, or the Islamic Republic's decision to negotiate and reach an agreement without a nuclear weapons program.
Referring to the sudden collapse of the Berlin Wall, he said that political developments sometimes occur without prior prediction. In the negotiation scenario, Tehran must reach an agreement that prevents the continuation of a nuclear program aimed at building weapons.
Axios: - Trump assesses timing of potential attacks on Iran; US military ordered to prepare - Pentagon asks Central Command to finalize preparations for continued attacks US and Israeli sources: Attacks could occur before Israel's October 27 elections and the US midterm elections on November 3, 2026 Sources indicate a possible widespread targeting of Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear sites if attacks continue
On Saturday, October 1, at a campaign rally at Butler High School in Vandalia, Ohio, US President Donald Trump said about Iran's nuclear program that the Islamic Republic, unlike North Korea, will never obtain nuclear weapons. Referring to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, Trump said: "You know who Kim Jong Un is? North Korea. When someone has 112 nuclear missiles, you better deal with them." He then compared the situation between North Korea and Iran and added: "But here's the difference; the Iranian regime will never have nuclear weapons. Never." Referring to the US military budget, Trump also said: "We have made the largest investment in the history of the United States armed forces; over a trillion dollars, and this year we are going to spend a trillion and a half dollars." The US President added: "We have the most powerful military. Look at the siege. "Look at the siege." Trump has reiterated this position many times in recent days. On Thursday, he said he had eliminated "the Iranian nuclear threat" through US military operations and stressed that the goal of continuing the pressure was to ensure that this situation was maintained.
Foreign media: Talks mediated by Qatar between the United States and Iran have made little progress, with both sides refusing to make concessions and fears of renewed fighting growing. Qatar proposed an agreement linking Iran's demand for the lifting of the US naval blockade to US demands for nuclear concessions. But Iran said it would not consider taking nuclear steps unless Washington returned to the memorandum of understanding signed in June. US officials initially described the talks as positive, saying Trump was open to easing sanctions and releasing frozen funds in exchange for nuclear concessions. Hours later, Trump said he had offered nothing to Iran. A source told Axios that the talks were "stalled," while Trump said on Tuesday that Iran would "surrender" and "will not have a nuclear weapon."
19:50/ 29 October
With America's relative disappointment with Iran's nuclear concessions in the negotiations, the level of alert has increased.
Axios claimed about Iran and the US: "There are many gaps, I think it will take a miracle for the mediators to reach a final agreement."
U.S.: “No Agreement Without Nuclear Weapons”… Iran: “Unlikely to Be Resolved Before November” [U.S.-Iran War]
Iran doubts conclusion of war-ending deal before US midterm elections – Bloomberg
Amid concerns about a resumption of war after November 3rd, Iranian pessimism grows behind closed doors following Trump's rejection of the 7-day proposal. Iranian officials have expressed pessimism in private meetings regarding the possibility of reaching an agreement with the US to end the war before the midterm elections. According to Bloomberg, citing informed sources, talks held on the sidelines of the UN meetings in New York have not made any tangible progress. Iranian pessimism has increased after Trump rejected the 7-day proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the naval blockade and oil sanctions. Iran anticipates an escalation of the military and economic conflict after the midterm elections on November 3rd.
Amid concerns about a resumption of war after November 3rd, Iranian pessimism grows behind closed doors following Trump's rejection of the 7-day proposal. Iranian officials have expressed pessimism in private meetings regarding the possibility of reaching an agreement with the US to end the war before the midterm elections. According to Bloomberg, citing informed sources, talks held on the sidelines of the UN meetings in New York have not made any tangible progress. Iranian pessimism has increased after Trump rejected the 7-day proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the naval blockade and oil sanctions. Iran anticipates an escalation of the military and economic conflict after the midterm elections on November 3rd.
Bloomberg: Iran privately pessimistic about US-Iran negotiations! Agreement unlikely before November US midterm elections.
Top story on Bloomberg tonight: • • Iranian officials have privately expressed pessimism about reaching a deal to end hostilities with the US and reopen the Strait of Hormuz before the midterm elections in November, according to people familiar with the matter. • • Iran and the US made little progress during talks in New York at the United Nations General Assembly last week and Iran believes there’s a high chance of the conflict escalating after the Nov. 3 vote, according to the people, some of whom were briefed by Iranian officials. • • The main mediators are seeking something different from the Memorandum of Understanding signed by Iran and the US in mid-June. • • The US has told mediators it wants Iran to make firm commitments on reopening the strait this time around and to make concessions regarding its nuclear program, two of the people said. • • Iran officials have consistently said they are willing to pursue diplomacy but do not trust Donald Trump to abide by the terms of any agreement. The White House has similar feelings of distrust toward Tehran and Trump has previously said he doubts any deal can be reached before the midterms. • • There will not be a deal with Iran unless issues regarding the country’s nuclear program are addressed, according to one US official. Trump is willing to give Iran sanctions relief and release frozen funds in exchange for concrete progress on nuclear, the official said. • • With @FionamMacDonald @S_Elwardany @SamyAdghirni:
Top story on Bloomberg tonight: • • Iranian officials have privately expressed pessimism about reaching a deal to end hostilities with the US and reopen the Strait of Hormuz before the midterm elections in November, according to people familiar with the matter. • • Iran and the US made little progress during talks in New York at the United Nations General Assembly last week and Iran believes there’s a high chance of the conflict escalating after the Nov. 3 vote, according to the people, some of whom were briefed by Iranian officials. • • The main mediators are seeking something different from the Memorandum of Understanding signed by Iran and the US in mid-June. • • The US has told mediators it wants Iran to make firm commitments on reopening the strait this time around and to make concessions regarding its nuclear program, two of the people said. • • Iran officials have consistently said they are willing to pursue diplomacy but do not trust Donald Trump to abide by the terms of any agreement. The White House has similar feelings of distrust toward Tehran and Trump has previously said he doubts any deal can be reached before the midterms. • • There will not be a deal with Iran unless issues regarding the country’s nuclear program are addressed, according to one US official. Trump is willing to give Iran sanctions relief and release frozen funds in exchange for concrete progress on nuclear, the official said. • • With @FionamMacDonald @S_Elwardany @SamyAdghirni:
Iranian officials are pessimistic about a deal with the US before the midterm elections Bloomberg reported that some Iranian officials have expressed pessimism in private conversations about reaching an agreement with Washington to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz before the US midterm elections on November 3. According to the people familiar with the matter, who did not want to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter, Iran is likely to intensify the conflict after the elections. This assessment suggests that Tehran is skeptical about the durability of any agreement before the US elections. @Defapress_ir
Iranian officials are pessimistic about a deal with the US before the midterm elections Bloomberg reported that some Iranian officials have expressed pessimism in private conversations about reaching an agreement with Washington to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz before the US midterm elections on November 3. According to the people familiar with the matter, who did not want to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter, Iran is likely to intensify the conflict after the elections. This assessment suggests that Tehran is skeptical about the durability of any agreement before the US elections. @Defapress_ir
[UPDATE] Mediators are working to broker a US-Iran deal, but major hurdles remain (first reported at 2026-09-28T12:25:44Z)
Iranian officials have been privately pessimistic about reaching a deal that would end the aggression with Washington and reopen the Strait of Hormuz before the November midterm elections, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. According to the people, some of whom were briefed by Iranian officials, little progress was made between the two countries during talks in New York on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly last week, and the Islamic Republic believes there is a high chance that the conflict will escalate after the November 3 elections. @ishayb2003
Iranian officials have been privately pessimistic about reaching a deal that would end the aggression with Washington and reopen the Strait of Hormuz before the November midterm elections, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. According to the people, some of whom were briefed by Iranian officials, little progress was made between the two countries during talks in New York on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly last week, and the Islamic Republic believes there is a high chance that the conflict will escalate after the November 3 elections. @ishayb2003
IRAN PESSIMISTIC ON U.S. DEAL BEFORE MIDTERMS • • Iranian officials privately see little prospect of reaching a U.S. agreement to end hostilities and reopen Hormuz before the Nov. 3 midterms, Bloomberg reports. • • Talks in New York made limited progress, with nuclear concessions and reopening Hormuz remaining key sticking points. • • Negotiations through mediators are continuing, but fading hopes for a near-term breakthrough helped push Brent above $106.
Latest developments in the Iran-US war on Monday, October 26; from the capture of an American drone to the firing of a cruise missile in Hormuz and several explosions in Erbil, Iraq The latest developments in the Iran-US war are focused on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the path of negotiations. Reuters reported an increase of more than one percent in oil prices after Trump rejected Iran's offer, and Axios reported that Tehran's offer and a compromise plan were conveyed to both sides by Qatari mediators. In military developments, the IRGC spokesman announced the capture of an American Mk 18 Mod 2 Kingfish drone, describing it as being worth several million dollars and containing intelligence. There have also been reports of a cruise missile firing at a ship illegally passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Last night, Erbil, Iraq, was also targeted by several attacks. Iran has announced that its delegation in New York has no plans to negotiate with the United States. A source close to the delegation said that Tehran's positions have been conveyed to Washington through a Qatari mediator and Iran is awaiting a response. Araghchi will also return to the country after completing the planned programs. Read the full text at the following link: @Nournews_IR
US President Donald Trump said in an interview with Fox News on Sunday, October 25, that the United States will win the war with Iran "very soon" and stressed that the Islamic Republic will not obtain nuclear weapons. "We will win this war by applying economic pressure on Iran and military action at the same time," Trump said. In response to the question of whether an attack on Iran before the US midterm elections in November was still on the table, he said: "I don't want to say anything about that. "I mean, it's a possibility, but I just don't want to say anything about it." Trump had previously said in his speech to the United Nations General Assembly that the Islamic Republic should not obtain nuclear weapons and had raised the possibility of further US military action against Iran if the two sides did not reach an agreement. The US president has also said in recent days that Tehran wants a deal with Washington, but that the Islamic Republic's current proposal for reaching an agreement is not acceptable to him. He has said that he expects more talks between the two sides.
Waltz says Iran wanted sanctions relief up front in rejected deal Mike Waltz, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said Sunday that PresidentDonald Trumprejected Iran’s latest proposal because Tehran wanted sanctions relief and access to “billions in frozen assets” before negotiating an end to its nuclear program. “They were asking for everything up front, with a promise that they would then talk,”Waltzsaid on CNN’s “State of the Union” when asked whatTrumpobjected to. On Saturday,Trumprejected an Iranian proposalto reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear talks in exchange for the U.S. lifting its naval blockade of Iranian ports, waiving sanctions on Iranian oil sales and committing to a seven-day ceasefire that would include Lebanon. “They wanna make a deal where they open the Strait immediately because they’re losing so badly,”Trumptold reporters. “We’re winning tremendously. We have total control of the Hormuz Strait.” The Wall Street Journal reported Friday, citing U.S. officials, thatTrumphas told aides he expected to resume bombing Iran after the November midterms. Asked about the report,Waltzsaid, “I don’t think that the president has said that himself; that’s some reporting by a newspaper.” “What the president has said and said here at his U.N. speech was that the Iranians are miscalculating that he’s taking into account politics here,”Waltzadded. This comes as the war in Iran and rising gas prices put pressure on Republicans ahead of the November midterms.
Abbas Araqchi: The United States can implement the demands put forward in the Islamic Republic's proposal within four or five days; in that case, we will open the Strait of Hormuz on the sixth day and resume negotiations for a final agreement on the seventh day.
Saeed Ajarloo, a media member of the Islamic Republic's negotiating team, said in an interview with the Islamic Republic's Radio and Television on Saturday, October 25, that he is not optimistic about the outcome of the negotiations and that the Islamic Republic has entered a "complex and volatile" period. He also said that Tehran must "fill its hands" in the military, field, economic, and social spheres. Ajarloo said about the Islamic Republic's recent proposal to the United States: "In the seven-day proposal, comprehensive negotiations for a final agreement were supposed to begin after the other party's commitments were implemented on the seventh day." Referring to US President Donald Trump's approach towards the Islamic Republic, Ajarloo said that his idea that he could extract a major concession from Tehran through economic pressure is a "calculation error." He said about the prospects for the negotiations: "I am not optimistic at all. "The reality tells us that we have entered a complex and truly turbulent period."
Donald Trump publicly rejected Iran's plan to end hostilities within seven days. Earlier, The Wall Street Journal reported that the president told his aides that the United States could resume strikes against Iran after the November congressional elections. The day before, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that Tehran had presented Washington with a plan to end hostilities within seven days.
On the same subject, an American source tells the Saudi Al-Hadath network: Trump believes that economic pressure on Iran is more beneficial than reaching an agreement on the terms Iran has proposed. Trump has informed the negotiating team that there is no way back to the memorandum of understanding with Iran (which was signed in mid-June and fell apart a month later). Trump is inclined to renew airstrikes on Iran after the US midterm elections (in early November), while tightening the embargo on it. [in reply to: President Trump announces: Rejects Iranian proposal This is a proposal to open the naval blockade of Hormuz within 7 days and lift sanctions on Iran, in exchange for a cessation of hostilities (both in Iran and Lebanon)]
Iran has proposed renewing the ceasefire agreement with the United States before the midterm elections in November, NBC News reports, citing Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. "We don't want to escalate the situation to the midterm elections. We would like the Americans to return to the memorandum before they take place."
Iran is fully aware of the importance of the upcoming midterm elections in Congress, so it will not make any deal before the elections, and perhaps not even until the end of Trump's term. Iran doesn't lose negotiations, but it doesn't win wars; this is a well-known saying about it.
Iran is fully aware of the importance of the upcoming midterm elections in Congress, so it will not make any deal before the elections, and perhaps not even until the end of Trump's term. Iran doesn't lose negotiations, but it doesn't win wars; this is a well-known saying about it.
What is this event about?
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, including a 60-day extendable period in which both countries committed to negotiate toward a “final deal” regarding Iran’s nuclear program and other topics.
This market resolves to “Yes” if a qualifying written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran has been mutually signed or adopted by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.”
Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially-issued electronic signatures will qualify as signatures.
If the written instrument is recognized by the United States and Iran as not requiring signature for execution, formal adoption of the instrument by both countries without signature will qualify. Formal adoption may be established by official actions, including:
(i) an official joint statement announcing that the United States and Iran have adopted, approved, executed, concluded, or otherwise finalized the instrument;
(ii) mutual official confirmation that the same published instrument has been agreed to, adopted, approved, executed, or concluded by both countries;
(iii) adoption, approval, or endorsement through an official resolution, ministerial decision, executive decision, or equivalent institutional act, where that act is the mechanism by which the relevant country adopts the instrument; or
(iv) an exchange of official diplomatic notes or letters confirming acceptance of the same instrument.
A qualifying written diplomatic instrument must:
(i) Be identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting;
(ii) Establish at least one specific obligation limiting Iran's nuclear program through a concrete, measurable benchmark against which compliance could be tested, which may take the form of a defined limit, prohibition, or quantity (e.g., a specific cap on the purity level to which Iran may enrich uranium, or an explicit commitment for Iran to surrender, destroy, or dilute its enriched uranium stockpile). Non-specific or vague restrictions, with no defined metric (e.g., a pledge not to pursue nuclear weapons, a commitment to maintain the status quo, or an agreement to abide IAEA monitoring or inspections requirements that do not specifically restrict Iran’s nuclear program) will not qualify.
The content of the qualifying instrument must be expressed as an agreed obligation to be implemented. The following do not qualify:
(i) a provision the substantive obligation of which remains explicitly subject to a future agreement, negotiation process, or mutually agreed follow-on instrument;
(ii) a provision explicitly framed as a minimum requirement for a future negotiation, rather than a present obligation;
(iii) a floor, placeholder, or minimum standard established explicitly for the purpose of structuring ongoing or future talks.
A definite and unconditional obligation may qualify, even if technical or procedural details, including the exact implementation date, timeframe, or sequencing, remain subject to future arrangements, provided that the obligation still establishes a concrete, measurable benchmark against which compliance could be tested. Conditional obligations do not qualify.
Whether an instrument qualifies will be primarily determined by its officially released text. A qualifying instrument must be signed or formally adopted by both the United States and Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. If such an instrument is signed or formally adopted by that time, but the complete text has not been released, and genuine material ambiguity remains as to whether it satisfies this market’s requirements, this market may remain open for up to 28 calendar days after the specified date pending release of the text. If the text has still not been released after 28 calendar days, official and definitive announcements from the United States or Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting, will be used to determine whether the instrument qualifies.
An instrument to which parties other than the United States and Iran are also party will qualify, provided that both the United States and Iran are parties to the instrument and all other requirements are satisfied.
Once a diplomatic instrument has been signed or formally adopted without signature by both the United States and Iran and confirmed to satisfy the requirements of a qualifying written diplomatic instrument, this market’s condition is met, regardless of whether the instrument later enters into force, is ratified, receives legislative or treaty consent, or is subsequently repudiated, withdrawn from, or not implemented by the United States or Iran.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official communications from the governments of the United States and Iran, or their authorized representatives. A consensus of credible reporting from major news agencies of record may also be used.