Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?
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Data shows that shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz remains sluggish.
Shipping data: Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains very limited amid renewed US-Iranian strikes
Maritime traffic is falling, oil is rising... The global economy hangs on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz slows to its lowest level in two months
Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz slows to its lowest level in several weeks
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic slows to five-week low
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic slows to multi-week low
02:59/ July 11
The Strait of Hormuz was completely closed from all directions.
International market services agency: Traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz continues to decline
Marine Traffic: Ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz on July 8 increased from 30 to 22.
Kpler data: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz fell yesterday to 22 vessels from 30 the previous day.
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted and almost come to a standstill.
"Without a concrete agreement, the situation will remain very, very unstable": maritime traffic falls again in the Strait of Hormuz after further exchanges of fire.
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic won't rebound without "substantial agreement" between U.S. and Iran, analysts say
Live: Strait of Hormuz oil tanker traffic grinds to near halt
Live: Traffic in Strait of Hormuz ‘grinds to a near halt’
Prediction Markets Keep Betting The Strait of Hormuz Will Reopen But What If This Is the New Normal?. • Prediction markets have repeatedly pushed back expectations for normal Strait of Hormuz traffic, raising questions over whether traders are underestimating a permanent shift in Gulf shipping.
Tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has essentially ceased.
After latest Iran attacks, Kalshi traders don't see traffic in the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal this year
HORMUZ TRAFFIC HOLDS FIRM • • Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains steady despite renewed attacks on commercial ships and rising Middle East tensions. • • Ship-tracking firm Kpler recorded 36 vessel crossings on Monday and 41 on Tuesday—roughly in line with last week's daily average of about 40 crossings.
Maritime Information Center: Continuous traffic in the northern and southern lanes of the Strait of Hormuz; no ships diverting to the Omani route.
Iranian state television: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is proceeding according to Iran's arrangements.
An oil spill from a tanker targeted in the Strait of Hormuz.
STRAIT OF HORMUZ TENSIONS LIFT OIL • • Oil prices rose after Iran reportedly attacked ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz on the Omani side, highlighting renewed tensions over control of the waterway. • • WTI gained 1% and Brent rose 1.1%, while Kalshi traders cut the odds of traffic returning to normal before late 2026. •
Strait Traffic remains resilient • • #MarineTraffic data recorded 108 verified vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz between 3 and 5 July, with 43 crossings on 3 July, 34 on 4 July and 31 on 5 July. Traffic was broadly balanced by direction, with 60 East-to-West crossings and 48 West-to-East crossings. Route selection remained fragmented, with 44 vessels using the Iranian Route, 30 using the Omani Route, 10 following the IMO Route and 24 classified as Dark or Unknown. • • The transits covered a wide range of vessel types, including tankers, container ships, bulk carriers and gas carriers, underscoring that commercial shipping continues to move through the Strait while operators maintain diversified routing strategies amid ongoing geopolitical and maritime security risks.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 7, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 7, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.