Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?
ResolvedOutcome: No$2.2Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Shipping data: Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains very limited amid renewed US-Iranian strikes
Maritime traffic is falling, oil is rising... The global economy hangs on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz slows to its lowest level in two months
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic slows to five-week low
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic slows to multi-week low
02:59/ July 11
The Strait of Hormuz was completely closed from all directions.
Live: Vessel traffic through Strait of Hormuz remains muted
International market services agency: Traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz continues to decline
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted and almost come to a standstill.
"Without a concrete agreement, the situation will remain very, very unstable": maritime traffic falls again in the Strait of Hormuz after further exchanges of fire.
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic won't rebound without "substantial agreement" between U.S. and Iran, analysts say
Live: Strait of Hormuz oil tanker traffic grinds to near halt
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic down to 23 ships yesterday
Live: Traffic in Strait of Hormuz ‘grinds to a near halt’
Prediction Markets Keep Betting The Strait of Hormuz Will Reopen But What If This Is the New Normal?. • Prediction markets have repeatedly pushed back expectations for normal Strait of Hormuz traffic, raising questions over whether traders are underestimating a permanent shift in Gulf shipping.
Tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has essentially ceased.
Live: Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz "essentially stopped"
After latest Iran attacks, Kalshi traders don't see traffic in the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal this year
So much for Hormuz traffic going back to normal
Maritime Information Center: Continuous traffic in the northern and southern lanes of the Strait of Hormuz; no ships diverting to the Omani route.
An oil spill from a tanker targeted in the Strait of Hormuz.
STRAIT OF HORMUZ TENSIONS LIFT OIL • • Oil prices rose after Iran reportedly attacked ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz on the Omani side, highlighting renewed tensions over control of the waterway. • • WTI gained 1% and Brent rose 1.1%, while Kalshi traders cut the odds of traffic returning to normal before late 2026. •
Strait Traffic remains resilient • • #MarineTraffic data recorded 108 verified vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz between 3 and 5 July, with 43 crossings on 3 July, 34 on 4 July and 31 on 5 July. Traffic was broadly balanced by direction, with 60 East-to-West crossings and 48 West-to-East crossings. Route selection remained fragmented, with 44 vessels using the Iranian Route, 30 using the Omani Route, 10 following the IMO Route and 24 classified as Dark or Unknown. • • The transits covered a wide range of vessel types, including tankers, container ships, bulk carriers and gas carriers, underscoring that commercial shipping continues to move through the Strait while operators maintain diversified routing strategies amid ongoing geopolitical and maritime security risks.
Cosmo crude oil tanker passes through the Strait of Hormuz, returning to port in mid-July; normalization remains uncertain
Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is gradually recovering, but normalization of navigation still faces multiple challenges.
Citi Expects Oil To Sink To $60 As Hormuz Traffic Normalizes
Iran approaches major Japanese oil companies about purchasing crude oil; negotiations unlikely to be successful; concerns about safe navigation in the Sea of Hormuz.
Iran approaches major Japanese oil companies about purchasing crude oil; negotiations unlikely to be successful, concerns over safe navigation in the Sea of Hormuz.
Live: Hormuz shipping rebound remains precarious
CMA CGM CEO: We may have to dismantle the ship hit by a missile in the Strait of Hormuz.
Where does the news lean?
8YES36NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 7, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 7, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.