What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June?
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This hub tracks 17 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
25 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
The U.S. stock market is getting close to dot-com bubble peak valuations. • The Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for U.S. stocks is nearing the 1999 peak seen during the dot-com bubble.
The U.S. stock market is getting close to dot-com bubble peak valuations. • The Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for U.S. stocks is nearing the 1999 peak seen during the dot-com bubble.
The U.S. stock market is getting close to dot-com bubble peak valuations. • The Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for U.S. stocks is nearing the 1999 peak seen during the dot-com bubble.
The U.S. stock market is getting close to dot-com bubble peak valuations. • The Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for U.S. stocks is nearing the 1999 peak seen during the dot-com bubble.
The US dollar rose this morning and remains on course to record its biggest weekly surge in over 2 months. • • Meanwhile, the #SP500 and the #Nasdaq hit new record highs. • • Trading is high risk. Authorised by the CMA. • •
via the great @AHart1974 • • We are seeing negative divergences in the equity market, with a record number of stocks making new 52-week lows when the S&P 500 is showing such a strong performance. • • Historically, this points to shorter-term underperformance. • • The number of stocks in the S&P making new one-year lows hit 30 yesterday. • • That’s not unremarkable in its own right, but it is when combined with the index returning almost 10% in a month (ZH)
via the great @AHart1974 • • We are seeing negative divergences in the equity market, with a record number of stocks making new 52-week lows when the S&P 500 is showing such a strong performance. • • Historically, this points to shorter-term underperformance. • • The number of stocks in the S&P making new one-year lows hit 30 yesterday. • • That’s not unremarkable in its own right, but it is when combined with the index returning almost 10% in a month (ZH)
Stock index futures and options close lower; futures continue to fall, call options decline.
Stock index futures and options close lower; futures continue to fall, call options decline.
BIG: The S&P 500 has reached a new all-time high of 7,450.
JUST IN: S&P 500 REACHES NEW ALL-TIME HIGH OF 7,450 ...
S&P 500 SET TO TOP 8,000, SAYS YARDENI AS RALLY ACCELERATES • • WALL STREET VETERAN ED YARDENI EXPECTS THE S&P 500 TO SURPASS 8,000 BY END-2026, RAISING HIS TARGET TO 8,250 AFTER STRONG EARNINGS AND A SHARP MARKET RALLY. • • HE LIFTED PROFIT FORECASTS, SAYING FASTER-THAN-EXPECTED EARNINGS UPGRADES ARE DRIVING AN “EARNINGS-LED MELT-UP.” YARDENI ALSO MAINTAINED A LONG-TERM BULLISH OUTLOOK, TARGETING 10,000 BY 2029. • • OTHER STRATEGISTS HAVE ALSO RAISED FORECASTS, CITING TECH STRENGTH AND AI ADOPTION, THOUGH THEY WARN THE RALLY IS NARROW AND SENTIMENT FRAGILE. • • SOME ANALYSTS SEE NEAR-TERM OVERHEATING, WITH TECHNICAL INDICATORS FLASHING OVERBOUGHT SIGNALS, SUGGESTING A POSSIBLE PULLBACK BEFORE FURTHER GAINS. • • DESPITE GEOPOLITICAL RISKS IN THE MIDDLE EAST, YARDENI REMAINS CONFIDENT THE BULL MARKET TREND WILL CONTINUE. ...
S&P 500 SET TO TOP 8,000, SAYS YARDENI AS RALLY ACCELERATES • • Wall Street veteran Ed Yardeni expects the S&P 500 to surpass 8,000 by end-2026, raising his target to 8,250 after strong earnings and a sharp market rally. • • He lifted profit forecasts, saying faster-than-expected earnings upgrades are driving an “earnings-led melt-up.” Yardeni also maintained a long-term bullish outlook, targeting 10,000 by 2029. • • Other strategists have also raised forecasts, citing tech strength and AI adoption, though they warn the rally is narrow and sentiment fragile. • • Some analysts see near-term overheating, with technical indicators flashing overbought signals, suggesting a possible pullback before further gains. • • Despite geopolitical risks in the Middle East, Yardeni remains confident the bull market trend will continue.
JPMorgan just hiked its S&P 500 target for end-2026 to 7,600 from 7,200. • • AI remains the key growth engine. • • In the bull scenario: if the US and Iran strike a deal, the index could climb all the way to 8,000 by year-end.
JUST IN: S&P 500 $SPX REACHES NEW ALL-TIME HIGH OF 7,050 ...
Why the S&P 500 could drop to 6,000 before it reaches a fresh record high
The SPX is pricing a 175bps daily move every session from now until June expiry
The SPX is pricing a 175bps daily move every session from now until June expiry
UBS SEES S&P 500 SURGING TO 7,700 • • UBS remains bullish on U.S. stocks, expecting the S&P 500 to reach 7,300 by mid-2026 and 7,700 by year-end. • • The bank says the rally is supported by strong earnings growth, expected Fed rate cuts, and continued AI-driven gains. It forecasts 11% profit growth in 2026. • • Geopolitical risks are seen as temporary, with UBS expecting energy markets to stabilize. While prolonged disruption could weigh on stocks, history suggests markets typically rebound after such events. • • Despite recent volatility, UBS believes the overall outlook for equities remains positive.
S&P500 to hit 8,000 in 2026, per Capital Economics
S&P500 to hit 8,000 in 2026, per Capital Economics
What is this event about?
What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of June 2026?