Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
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Bookmakers have raised the estimated probability of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine to 100% today, for the periods before the end of May, June, and by the end of 2026.
URGENT: Russia and the US negotiated a ceasefire with Ukraine for two days.
"We can do whatever we want in Russia" – Ukraine is now going on the offensive.
Zelenskyy says U.S. gave Ukraine and Russia a June deadline to reach agreement to end the nearly four-year war
The US has given Ukraine and Russia a June deadline to reach an agreement to end the nearly four-year war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said
US wants Russia and Ukraine to end war by June, says Zelensky
PRESIDENT VOLODYMYR ZELENSKIY SAYS THE US IS PROPOSING TO FINISH ALL NECESSARY NEGOTIATIONS AND HAVE ALL NEEDED DOCUMENTS SIGNED TO END RUSSIA’S INVASION OF UKRAINE IN JUNE
U.S. WANTS UKRAINE, RUSSIA TO END WAR BEFORE SUMMER - PRESIDENT ZELENSKIY
ZELENSKIY: US LOOKS FOR DEAL ENDING RUSSIA'S WAR BY JUNE
U.S. has given Ukraine and Russia a June deadline to reach an agreement to end the nearly four-year war, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy says.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy says the US is proposing to finish all necessary negotiations and have all needed documents signed to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in June
Russia and Ukraine exchange prisoners as peace talks end without breakthrough
Ukraine, Russia end second day of peace talks, agree prisoner swap
Ukraine says first day of peace talks with Russia ‘productive’
[Replying to @RoBarDa7340] @RoBarDa7340 > @sentdefender Ukraine has broken every ceasefire prior to this. They get what they deserve.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.