Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
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Market pricing makes ≤47 the favorite at 26% across 11 tracked outcomes, as of .
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5 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Our average seat outcome remains 50-50, which would maintain a GOP majority. Specifically, the two most common outcomes in our 1 million simulations are a 50-50 Senate or a 51-49 Democratic edge, each with a 10% chance. • • Read our memo here: •
Our average seat outcome remains 50-50, which would maintain a GOP majority. Specifically, the two most common outcomes in our 1 million simulations are a 50-50 Senate or a 51-49 Democratic edge, each with a 10% chance. • • Read our memo here: •
Which Senate seats will matter most in 2026? Our new election forecast provides some answers. Links in reply. • • GOP has about a 3 in 5 shot at a majority. Dems must win at least 7 of 10 key seats for a majority, while GOP only needs 4 for 50-50 split (VP Vance would break ties).
Which Senate seats will matter most in 2026? Our new election forecast provides some answers. Links in reply. • • GOP has about a 3 in 5 shot at a majority. Dems must win at least 7 of 10 key seats for a majority, while GOP only needs 4 for 50-50 split (VP Vance would break ties).
There are 35 Senate seats up for election in 2026, including two special elections. Democrats enter the midterm campaigns hoping history is on their side but confronting a Senate map that is not.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the United States Senate as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.