Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

ResolvedOutcomes1as of

This hub tracks 1 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

YESAl Jazeera Breaking News98%match80¢+25%
BREAKING: Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei killed, Reuters and Israeli media report citing unnamed senior Israeli officials LIVE updates:
YESVisegrád 2499%match80¢+25%
Looks like Khamenei is gone
YESPhilip Melanchthon Wegmann99%match80¢+25%
RT @BarakRavid: Israeli ambassador to Washington Yechiel Leiter told U.S. officials that Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei has been kil…
YESOSINTdefender98%match80¢+25%
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s compound after being targeted earlier today by the Israeli Air Force, with it now confirmed that Khamenei was killed in the strike on his home in Tehran. [Quoting @sentdefender] >
YESAl Jazeera English98%match80¢+25%
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu claims he has seen “many signs” that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei may have been killed.
YESAxios99%match80¢+25%
BREAKING: ISRAEL SAYS IRAN SUPREME LEADER KHAMENEI IS DEAD
YESHuffPost Politics98%match80¢+25%
A senior Israeli official told Reuters that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in Israeli and U.S. strikes.
YESGlobe Eye News98%match80¢+25%
BREAKING: Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei has been killed and his body recovered, Israeli media reports.
YESVisegrád 2498%match80¢+25%
BREAKING: Senior Israeli official to Reuters: “Khamenei is dead, his body has been found”
YESOSINTdefender98%match80¢+25%
Reuters and Axios are now also reporting that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been eliminated by an Israeli strike this morning on Tehran.
YESGlobe Eye News98%match80¢+25%
BREAKING: Iran Supreme Leader Khamenei has been killed and his body recovered Israeli media reports.
YESThe Spectator Index98%match80¢+25%
BREAKING: Several senior US officials have been updated that Iran's Supreme Leader has been killed
YESThe Spectator Index98%match80¢+25%
BREAKING: Reuters now also reporting that a Senior Israeli official has told it Khamenei is dead and his body has been found
YESunusual_whales98%match80¢+25%
BREAKING: Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has been killed and his body has been recovered per Israeli media outlets
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match80¢+25%
Ali Khamenei is dead.
YESOSINTdefender98%match80¢+25%
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli airstrike this morning on Iran, with his body being found recently among the rubble, Israeli officials tell The Times of Israel.
YESFaytuks News99%match80¢+25%
BREAKING: Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been killed and his body has been retrieved - Kann News
YESThe Spectator Index98%match80¢+25%
BREAKING: Body of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been recovered after his killing, according to Israeli media.
YESThe Spectator Index98%match80¢+25%
BREAKING: Israeli officials say Iran's Supreme Leader has been eliminated, according to Israeli media.
YESCGTN Europe98%match80¢+25%
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Iran this morning, an Israeli official says - reports
YESdb98%match80¢+25%
Israel's N12 is reporting Iran's supreme leader Khamenei was killed in strikes
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match80¢+25%
BREAKING:Ali Khameneis body has been found-N12
YESDB News98%match80¢+25%
*IRAN'S SUPREME LEADER KHAMENEI KILLED IN STRIKE: ISRAEL'S N12
YESBBC Breaking News98%match80¢+25%
[Replying to @BBCBreaking] Israeli PM Netanyahu says there are growing signs Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei is "gone" - follow updates >
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧98%match78¢+28%
BREAKING: Netanyahu says there is many signs Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei no longer alive.
YESThe Spectator Index98%match78¢+28%
BREAKING: Netanyahu says many signs that Iran's Supreme Leader has been eliminated
YESFaytuks News98%match78¢+28%
BREAKING: There are many signs that Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei has been eliminated, Netanyahu says
YESOSINTdefender99%match78¢+28%
RT @Polymarket: BREAKING: Iran’s Supreme Leader projected to lose power this year. >70% chance.
YESThe Spectator Index98%match78¢+28%
BREAKING: 30 missiles were dropped on the Iranian Supreme Leader's compound and Khamenei is 'almost certainly' dead, according to Israel's Channel 12.
NOGlobe Eye News98%match22¢-100%
BREAKING: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is alive and in command, Iranian state media confirms.

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed from power for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Related events