French Socialist Primary: First Round 2nd Place
Open33as of
Market pricing makes Olivier Faure the favorite at 69% across 33 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
Candidate A50%
Candidate B50%
Candidate C50%
Candidate D50%
Candidate E50%
Candidate F50%
Candidate G50%
Candidate H50%
Candidate I50%
Candidate J50%
Candidate K50%
Candidate L50%
Candidate M50%
Candidate N50%
Candidate O50%
Candidate P50%
Candidate Q50%
Candidate R50%
Candidate S50%
Candidate T50%
Candidate U50%
Candidate V50%
Candidate W50%
Candidate X50%
Jérôme Guedj14%
All further outcomes (3 more):
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
LIVE
Jérôme Guedj believes the Socialist Party acted "too hastily" by excluding Philippe Brun from the Socialist primary
Live: Jérôme Guedj believes the Socialist Party acted "too hastily" by excluding Philippe Brun from the Socialist primary
Accusations against Philippe Brun: Jérôme Guedj believes the Socialist Party acted "too hastily" in suspending him
Presidential election 2027: Jérôme Guedj denounces the "brutal" suspension of Philippe Brun
"Extremely violent": Jérôme Guedj believes the Socialist Party acted "hastily" by excluding Philippe Brun from the Socialist primary.
"Extremely violent": Jérôme Guedj believes the Socialist Party acted "hastily" by excluding Philippe Brun from the Socialist primary.
What is this event about?
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.