French Socialist Primary: First Round 2nd PlaceJérôme Guedj
ResolvedOutcome: No$557as of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Raphaël Glucksmann wins the Social Democratic primary: "I'm glad I participated in this primary," says losing candidate Jérôme Guedj
A majority emerged in the first round. Raphaël Glucksmann convinced a majority of voters, and I respect the democratic process of the primary, which I initiated, too much not to accept it wisely. He is now the elected candidate of the three parties associated in this primary.
Where does the news lean?
7YES0NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
How did this market resolve?
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.
This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the second-greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.
If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
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See all outcomes for French Socialist Primary: First Round 2nd Place — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.