Fed rate cut
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Market pricing makes December Meeting the favorite at 12% across 8 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Live: Investors have pushed out expectations of a potential rate increase. Ahead of the meeting, investors bet on a quarter point rate hike following either this week’s Fed meeting or certainly at September’s meeting. As things stand, investors are now priced for one quarter point rate hike this year by December, with odds for September now a coin toss.
Live: Investors have pushed out expectations of a potential rate increase. Ahead of the meeting, investors bet on a quarter point rate hike following either this week’s Fed meeting or certainly at September’s meeting. As things stand, investors are now priced for one quarter point rate hike this year by December, with odds for September now a coin toss.
Live: Fed leaves interest rate unchanged, but hike widely expected at next meeting in September
JUST IN: CITADEL SECURITIES EXPECTS SURPRISE FED RATE HIKE TOMORROW • • The call comes as odds of a 25 bps hike at the July meeting fall to 21% on Polymarket .com, down 6 points on the day. The FOMC decision lands tomorrow.
POLYMARKET: 95% CHANCE OF NO FED RATE CHANGE AT JULY MEETING • • Yes: 95% • No: 5% • Yes odds up 18%, about $63.6M wagered. • • The jump follows softer-than-expected inflation data this week that had traders cutting bets on a Fed rate hike. The July FOMC meeting is July 28-29.
Investors have continued to push back their expectations for when the Fed will next cut interest rates. Consensus is now that the Fed will not cut rates again this year and that it will be the middle of 2027 when the central bank finally does lower borrowing costs. Odds are currently clustered around a 0.25 percentage point cut to rates at the Fed’s June or July meeting next year.
Investors have continued to push back their expectations for when the Fed will next cut interest rates. Consensus is now that the Fed will not cut rates again this year and that it will be the middle of 2027 when the central bank finally does lower borrowing costs. Odds are currently clustered around a 0.25 percentage point cut to rates at the Fed’s June or July meeting next year.
US Fed fund futures rise up to 5 ticks; markets price in 80% chance of June rate cut
Fed holds key interest rate steady as economic view improves
*FED LEAVES RATE UNCHANGED
*FED LEAVES RATE UNCHANGED
*FED LEAVES RATE UNCHANGED
Effective fed funds rate: 3.64% January 26th vs 3.64% January 23rd
Effective Fed funds rate: 3.64% January 23rd vs 3.64% January 22nd
US Federal Reserve will resume cutting Fed Funds Rate in June or later, say 55 of 100 economists - Poll.
US Federal Reserve will resume cutting Fed Funds Rate in June or later, say 55 of 100 economists - Poll.
Fed's Jefferson: Fed rate cuts since 2024 have brought the policy rate into range consistent with neutral.
NEW IN: There's now an 82% chance the Fed cuts rates by their meeting on June 17th.
Goldman Sachs expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to deliver 25-basis-point rate cuts in June and September, instead of its prior forecast calling for cuts in March and June this year.
MAJOR BANKS SCALE BACK FED RATE-CUT EXPECTATIONS Following strong December jobs data, JPMorgan now sees no Fed rate cuts in 2026, keeping rates at 3.5–3.75% and even flagging a possible 2027 hike. Barclays has pushed projected cuts to June and December 2026. Markets price in a…
GOLDMAN SACHS EXPECTS US FED TO DELIVER 25 BPS RATE CUTS IN JUNE AND SEPTEMBER EACH VS PRIOR FORECAST OF CUTS IN MARCH AND JUNE THIS YEAR
GOLDMAN SACHS EXPECTS US FED TO DELIVER 25 BPS RATE CUTS IN JUNE AND SEPTEMBER EACH VS PRIOR FORECAST OF CUTS IN MARCH AND JUNE THIS YEAR
*MORGAN STANLEY CHANGES FED FORECAST TO CUTS IN JUNE, SEPTEMBER
CITIGROUP EXPECTS FED TO DELIVER 25 BPS RATE CUTS IN MARCH, JULY AND SEPT EACH VS PRIOR FORECAST OF CUTS IN JAN, MARCH AND SEPT THIS YEAR
Citigroup expects the Fed to deliver 25 bps rate cuts in March, July, and September each, vs prior forecast of cuts in January, March, and September this year.
Citigroup expects the Fed to deliver 25 bps rate cuts in March, July, and September each, vs prior forecast of cuts in January, March, and September this year.
CITIGROUP EXPECTS FED TO DELIVER 25 BPS RATE CUTS IN MARCH, JULY AND SEPTEMBER EACH VS PRIOR FORECAST OF CUTS IN JANUARY, MARCH AND SEPTEMBER THIS YEAR
CITIGROUP EXPECTS FED TO DELIVER 25 BPS RATE CUTS IN MARCH, JULY AND SEPTEMBER EACH VS PRIOR FORECAST OF CUTS IN JANUARY, MARCH AND SEPTEMBER THIS YEAR
Traders are currently pricing no rate cut for January.
*TRADERS PRICE IN NEAR-ZERO CHANCE OF FED RATE CUT IN JANUARY
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.