Fed rate cutOctober 2026 Meeting
Open$227Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES1¢
NO99¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
GOLDMAN SACHS NOW EXPECTS ANOTHER FED HIKE IN OCTOBER • • Goldman Sachs has shifted its Fed call, now expecting another 25bp hike in October after Wednesday’s meeting proved more hawkish than anticipated. • • GS joins ANZ, BofA, RBC and TD Securities in expecting a follow-up hike. The bank highlighted the 16-2 split favoring another hike this year, elevated rate projections and Warsh’s repeated reference to removing a “dose of accommodation.”
Where does the news lean?
0YES4NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 91%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for October 2026, currently scheduled for October 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no October meeting takes place by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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See all outcomes for Fed rate cut — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.