Fed rate cutSeptember Meeting
Open$377Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES1¢
NO99¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Live: Investors have pushed out expectations of a potential rate increase. Ahead of the meeting, investors bet on a quarter point rate hike following either this week’s Fed meeting or certainly at September’s meeting. As things stand, investors are now priced for one quarter point rate hike this year by December, with odds for September now a coin toss.
Live: Fed leaves interest rate unchanged, but hike widely expected at next meeting in September
Where does the news lean?
0YES2NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for September 2026, currently scheduled for September 15-16. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no September meeting takes place by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Related markets
See all outcomes for Fed rate cut — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.