Fed rate cutJune Meeting
ResolvedOutcome: No$785Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
9 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Investors have continued to push back their expectations for when the Fed will next cut interest rates. Consensus is now that the Fed will not cut rates again this year and that it will be the middle of 2027 when the central bank finally does lower borrowing costs. Odds are currently clustered around a 0.25 percentage point cut to rates at the Fed’s June or July meeting next year.
NOFirst Squawk99%match31¢+223%
US Fed fund futures rise up to 5 ticks; markets price in 80% chance of June rate cut
YESFinancialJuice99%match63¢-100%
US Federal Reserve will resume cutting Fed Funds Rate in June or later, say 55 of 100 economists - Poll.
YESPolymarket99%match82¢-100%
NEW IN: There's now an 82% chance the Fed cuts rates by their meeting on June 17th.
NOunusual_whales98%match34¢+194%
Goldman Sachs expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to deliver 25-basis-point rate cuts in June and September, instead of its prior forecast calling for cuts in March and June this year.
NO*Walter Bloomberg98%match34¢+194%
MAJOR BANKS SCALE BACK FED RATE-CUT EXPECTATIONS Following strong December jobs data, JPMorgan now sees no Fed rate cuts in 2026, keeping rates at 3.5–3.75% and even flagging a possible 2027 hike. Barclays has pushed projected cuts to June and December 2026. Markets price in a…
YES*Walter Bloomberg99%match74¢-100%
GOLDMAN SACHS EXPECTS US FED TO DELIVER 25 BPS RATE CUTS IN JUNE AND SEPTEMBER EACH VS PRIOR FORECAST OF CUTS IN MARCH AND JUNE THIS YEAR
NOzerohedge99%match23¢+335%
*MORGAN STANLEY CHANGES FED FORECAST TO CUTS IN JUNE, SEPTEMBER
NOFinancialJuice99%match25¢+300%
Fitch: Expect US Fed to cut rates twice in 1H26, taking fed funds rate (upper band) to 3.25%
Where does the news lean?
4YES6NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for June 2026, currently scheduled for June 16-17. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no June meeting takes place by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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See all outcomes for Fed rate cut — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.