Fed rate cutJanuary 2027 Meeting
Open$4Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 4% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES4¢
NO96¢
as of
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2027, currently scheduled for January 26 to 27. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Related markets
See all outcomes for Fed rate cut — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.