Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
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Market pricing makes Lula da Silva 5-10% the favorite at 44% across 11 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Brazil's Socialist President Sees Lead Disappear As Bolsonaro Heir Turns Presidential Election Into Coin Toss
Brazilian October election polls: Incumbent president and right-wing senator neck and neck.
Brazilian October election polls: Incumbent president and right-wing senator neck and neck.
Brazilian October election polls: Incumbent president and right-wing senator neck and neck.
Brazilian October election polls: Incumbent president and right-wing senator neck and neck.
Lula, Flavio Bolsonaro neck and neck ahead of Brazil election, Nexus poll shows
Lula da Silva leads his right-wing rival by 4 points in Brazilian opinion polls. Details from our correspondent, Daddah Abdallah.
Lula da Silva leads his right-wing rival by 4 points in Brazilian opinion polls. Details from our correspondent, Daddah Abdallah.
Lula da Silva leads his right-wing rival by 4 points in Brazilian opinion polls. Details from our correspondent, Daddah Abdallah.
Lula leads in the polls in Brazil with 39% after the start of the campaign. Datafolha: in the first round, Lula 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro 32%; in the second round, 47% versus 43%, according to the poll. #Brazil #Elections #Lula #teleSUR
Lula leads in voting intentions with 39%, according to the first Datafolha poll since the start of the campaign. Flávio Bolsonaro registers 33% and Caiado 5%; in a runoff election, there is a statistical tie (47% versus 43%). #teleSUR #Brazil #Elections #LatinAmerica #SouthGlobal @teleSURtv
Lula leads in voting intentions with 39%, according to the first Datafolha poll since the start of the campaign. Flávio Bolsonaro registers 33% and Caiado 5%; in a runoff election, there is a statistical tie (47% versus 43%). #teleSUR #Brazil #Elections #LatinAmerica #SouthGlobal @teleSURtv
Lula leads over Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election, Datafolha poll shows
Lula Seen with 39% vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 33% in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Datafolha Poll
Lula leads with 41% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 36% and will win in the second round (47%-44%), according to BTG/Nexus. Lula leads among women, Bolsa Família, and the Northeast; Flávio leads among men and the South. #teleSUR #Brazil #Elections2026 #Aug17
Lula leads with 41% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 36% and will win in the second round (47%-44%), according to BTG/Nexus. Lula leads among women, Bolsa Família, and the Northeast; Flávio leads among men and the South. #teleSUR #Brazil #Elections2026 #Aug17
Lula leads with 41% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 36% and will win in the second round (47%-44%), according to BTG/Nexus. Lula leads among women, Bolsa Família, and the Northeast; Flávio leads among men and the South. #teleSUR #Brazil #Elections2026 #Aug17
Lula leads with 41% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 36% and will win in the second round (47%-44%), according to BTG/Nexus. Lula leads among women, Bolsa Família, and the Northeast; Flávio leads among men and the South. #teleSUR #Brazil #Elections2026 #Aug17
Lula holds tight lead over Senator Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election, poll shows
Lula holds tight lead over Senator Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election, poll shows
A Quaest poll placed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as the favorite in Brazil's presidential elections, with 38% of the vote compared to Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's 31%. In four simulated runoff scenarios, Lula would win every time, while Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado tied for third place with 4%.
A Quaest poll placed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as the favorite in Brazil's presidential elections, with 38% of the vote compared to Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's 31%. In four simulated runoff scenarios, Lula would win every time, while Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado tied for third place with 4%.
Could Brazil leave BRICS after the presidential elections? The presidential campaign officially starts in Brazil today. A total of 13 candidates are running, but the main fight will be between the current 80-year-old head of state, Lula da Silva (Workers' Party), and the son of the convicted former president, Jair Bolsonaro, Flavio (Liberal Party). Lula plans to gather his supporters in Sao Paulo on Sunday, and Bolsonaro Jr. will gather on Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro. The elections themselves are scheduled for October 4, and the inauguration ceremony will take place on January 1, 2027. Two months before the presidential elections, the gap between the current Brazilian leader, Lula da Silva, and his main rival, Flavio Bolsonaro, has narrowed. The latter may curtail cooperation with BRICS if he wins. Read more in the RBC article. RBC Channel on Max
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Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows
Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows
Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows
Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil election, poll shows
Lula Seen with 38% vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 31% in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Quaest Poll
Lula Seen with 38% vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 31% in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Quaest Poll
Lula Seen with 38% vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 31% in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Quaest Poll
What is this event about?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).