Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of VictoryFlávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
Open$9Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 2% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES2¢
NO98¢
as of
What moved the odds?
10 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NOReuters97%match95¢+3%
Lula Seen with 38% vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 31% in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Quaest Poll
Lula leads Quaest poll: 39% in the first round vs. 30% for Flávio Bolsonaro. He wins all runoff scenarios. #Brazil #Lula #Elections2026 #teleSUR #Aug5
NOReuters97%match98¢
Lula Seen with 40%, Flavio Bolsonaro with 32%, and Caiado with 4% in Brazil Presidential Election First Round - Datafolha Poll
#Lula leads all election simulations for 2026: 40% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 34% in the first round, according to BTG Pactual. In a spontaneous poll, the difference widens to 11 points. In the second round: 47% to 44%. #Brazil #teleSUR
LULA SEEN WITH 39%, FLAVIO BOLSONARO 33%, CAIADO 4%, ZEMA 4% IN FIRST ROUND OF BRAZIL'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - POLL
NOReuters99%match92¢+7%
Lula Seen with 39%, Flavio Bolsonaro 33%, Caiado 4%, Zema 4% in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Genial/Quaest Poll
LULA SEEN WITH 37% AND FLAVIO BOLSONARO 32% IN FIRST ROUND OF BRAZIL'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - GENIAL/QUAEST POLL
NOReuters99%match91¢+8%
Flavio Bolsonaro Seen with 42% of Vote vs Lula’s 40% in Brazil’s Presidential Election Potential Run-Off - Genial/Quaest Poll
NOReuters99%match91¢+8%
Lula Seen with 37% and Flavio Bolsonaro 32% in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Genial/Quaest Poll
NOBloomberg98%match89¢+10%
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro are deadlocked ahead of Brazil’s October presidential election, according to a new poll that shows the race tied for the first time
Where does the news lean?
1YES21NO10neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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