Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of VictoryFlávio Bolsonaro 10%+
Open$11Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 4% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES4¢
NO96¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NOReuters97%match96¢
Lula Seen with 38% vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 31% in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Quaest Poll
Lula leads Quaest poll: 39% in the first round vs. 30% for Flávio Bolsonaro. He wins all runoff scenarios. #Brazil #Lula #Elections2026 #teleSUR #Aug5
#Lula leads all election simulations for 2026: 40% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 34% in the first round, according to BTG Pactual. In a spontaneous poll, the difference widens to 11 points. In the second round: 47% to 44%. #Brazil #teleSUR
LULA SEEN WITH 39%, FLAVIO BOLSONARO 33%, CAIADO 4%, ZEMA 4% IN FIRST ROUND OF BRAZIL'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - POLL
NOReuters99%match84¢+14%
Lula Seen with 39%, Flavio Bolsonaro 33%, Caiado 4%, Zema 4% in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Genial/Quaest Poll
Poll places Lula da Silva as the favorite for Brazil's 2026 presidential elections A new AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll reveals that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads with 46.6% of voting intentions for the 2026 elections, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro with 39.7%. In an alternative scenario without Lula's participation, former minister Fernando Haddad (PT) leads the voting intention with 40.5%, compared to Flávio Bolsonaro's 39.2%. The study, which interviewed 5,008 Brazilians between April 22 and 27, has a 95% confidence level.
YESBloomberg98%match3¢+33%
Flavio Bolsonaro’s presidential candidacy is shifting into higher gear, surprising skeptics who initially didn’t believe his decision to run for Brazil’s top job was real.
NOBloomberg98%match94¢+2%
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro are deadlocked ahead of Brazil’s October presidential election, according to a new poll that shows the race tied for the first time
Where does the news lean?
1YES16NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 75% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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See all outcomes for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.