Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of VictoryLula da Silva 15%+
ResolvedOutcome: No$58Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Brazilian President Lula da Silva comments on the right-wing candidate's lead over him in the first round of elections
Elections in Brazil: The Bolsonaro clan triumphs – Lula faces a runoff election
Lula da Silva lost in the first round of the presidential elections in Brazil Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, beat the incumbent leader of the country, Lula da Silva. Bolsonaro won 47.03% of the vote, and da Silva - 45.16%. Now they will go to the second round of the elections on October 25. On October 4, general elections began in Brazil, in which citizens of the country elect vice president, governors, as well as members of the National Congress and local parliaments. The main intrigue of the campaign was the fight for the presidential seat between da Silva and Bolsonaro. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
NOReuters97%match92¢+9%
Lula Seen with 38% vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 31% in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Quaest Poll
Brazil’s Lula gains ground on Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of presidential vote, poll shows
LULA SEEN WITH 37% AND FLAVIO BOLSONARO 32% IN FIRST ROUND OF BRAZIL'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - GENIAL/QUAEST POLL
NOReuters99%match93¢+8%
Lula Seen with 37% and Flavio Bolsonaro 32% in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Genial/Quaest Poll
NOBloomberg99%match96¢+4%
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro are deadlocked ahead of Brazil’s October presidential election, according to a new poll that shows the race tied for the first time
Where does the news lean?
1YES34NO7neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Related markets
See all outcomes for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.