Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?Wang Yi

OpenVol$16KDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 2% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES2¢
NO98¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOmfa.gov.cn99%match95¢+3%
Wang Yi speaks with Canadian Foreign Minister Anand by phone (March 26, 2026)
NOmfa.gov.cn99%match94¢+4%
Wang Yi speaks with British Foreign Secretary Cooper by phone (March 19, 2026)
NOmfa.gov.cn99%match91¢+8%
Wang Yi speaks by phone with Dutch Foreign Minister Berenderson (March 13, 2026)
NOThe Wall Street Journal98%match93¢+5%
China’s recent announcement that it was investigating its top military general was a bombshell with a mystery at its heart: What pushed Xi Jinping to purge a friend?

Where does the news lean?

0YES5NO0neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 1) The listed individual is removed or resigns from their primary political post or from their position, if any, on the Chinese Politburo or its standing committee, with a consensus of credible reporting describing the resignation/removal as a “purge”, “ousting”, or similar language, or to have presumably or definitively occurred as a result of corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or a lack of political favor. 2) The listed individual is expelled from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Qualifying announcements and reporting of a purge before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal/expulsion goes into effect. A listed individual leaving office at the end of a regularly scheduled term, or being removed/resigning from office without a consensus of credible reporting describing the resignation/removal as a “purge”, “ousting”, or similar language, or to have presumably or definitively occurred as a result of corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or a lack of political favor, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from the Chinese Government and a consensus of credible reporting.

Related markets

See all outcomes for Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.

Trending now