Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

OpenOutcomes9as of

Market pricing makes Dong Jun the favorite at 10% across 9 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

Dong Jun10%
Cai Qi7%
Zhao Leji6%
Zhang Shengmin5%
Wang Huning4%
Ding Xuexiang4%
Wang Yi2%
Li Qiang2%
Li Xi2%

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

Wang Huningmfa.gov.cn92%match97¢-1%
Wang Huning attended a reception commemorating the 65th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between China and North Korea (July 16, 2026)
Wang HuningNews99%match96¢
Wang Huning attended a symposium on research and consultation regarding the construction of a modern industrial system.
Wang HuningNews99%match96¢
The National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) held a brainstorming session for its chairpersons. Wang Huning presided over the meeting and delivered a speech.
Wang HuningNews99%match92¢+4%
Wang Huning met with representatives of cultural figures from both sides of the Taiwan Strait who were attending the Third Cross-Strait Summit on Chinese Culture.
Ding Xuexiangmfa.gov.cn99%match97¢-1%
Ding Xuexiang attended and delivered a speech at the groundbreaking ceremony of the fourth phase of the Fuxing Gas Field project (April 18, 2026)
Ding Xuexiangmfa.gov.cn99%match97¢-1%
Ding Xuexiang attended and addressed the unveiling ceremony of the Turkmenistan Luban Workshop (April 18, 2026)
Li Qiangmofcom.gov.cn99%match98¢
Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council, which heard a report on the development of free trade zones and reviewed and approved the draft revision of the "Regulations for the Implementation of the Administrative Reconsideration Law of the People's Republic of China".
Li QiangNews99%match99¢-1%
Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council, which heard a report on the development of free trade zones and reviewed and approved the draft revision of the "Regulations for the Implementation of the Administrative Reconsideration Law of the People's Republic of China".
Ding Xuexiangmfa.gov.cn99%match97¢-1%
Ding Xuexiang attended and addressed the opening ceremony of the seminar commemorating the 20th anniversary of the China-Turkmenistan natural gas strategic cooperation (April 17, 2026).
Ding Xuexiangmfa.gov.cn98%match97¢-1%
Ding Xuexiang meets with Turkmen President Berdimuhamedov (April 17, 2026)
Cai Qimfa.gov.cn99%match95¢-2%
Cai Qi held talks with Tran Cam Tu, member of the Politburo and Permanent Secretary of the Secretariat of the Communist Party of Vietnam (April 16, 2026)
Li QiangNews99%match98¢
Li Qiang held talks with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Khalid.
Li QiangNews99%match98¢
Li Qiang chaired a symposium with economic experts and entrepreneurs.
Li QiangNews98%match97¢+1%
During his inspection tour in Sichuan, Li Qiang emphasized the need to vigorously promote the construction of new power grids and accelerate the adjustment and optimization of the energy structure to provide strong support for high-quality economic and social development.
Wang Yimfa.gov.cn99%match95¢+3%
Wang Yi speaks with Canadian Foreign Minister Anand by phone (March 26, 2026)
Wang Huningmfa.gov.cn99%match95¢+1%
Wang Huning met with Umrzakov, strategic development advisor to the President of Uzbekistan (March 26, 2026)
Wang HuningNews99%match95¢+1%
Wang Huning met with Umrzakov, Strategic Development Advisor to the President of Uzbekistan.
Li QiangNews99%match96¢+2%
Li Qiang signed a State Council decree promulgating the revised "National Agricultural Census Regulations".
Zhao Lejimfa.gov.cn99%match95¢-1%
Zhao Leji meets with delegation from the Mongolian People's Party (March 23, 2026)
Zhao Lejimfa.gov.cn99%match95¢-1%
Zhao Leji will attend the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2026 (March 23, 2026)
Li QiangNews99%match97¢+1%
Li Qiang issued important instructions on the national spring agricultural production work, emphasizing the need to ensure a stable and safe supply of grain and other important agricultural products at a high level to provide strong support for a good start to the "15th Five-Year Plan".
Wang Yimfa.gov.cn99%match94¢+4%
Wang Yi speaks with British Foreign Secretary Cooper by phone (March 19, 2026)
Wang Yimfa.gov.cn99%match91¢+8%
Wang Yi speaks by phone with Dutch Foreign Minister Berenderson (March 13, 2026)
Dong JunThe Wall Street Journal98%match18¢-44%
China’s recent announcement that it was investigating its top military general was a bombshell with a mystery at its heart: What pushed Xi Jinping to purge a friend?
Cai QiThe Wall Street Journal98%match95¢-2%
China’s recent announcement that it was investigating its top military general was a bombshell with a mystery at its heart: What pushed Xi Jinping to purge a friend?
Zhao LejiThe Wall Street Journal98%match93¢+1%
China’s recent announcement that it was investigating its top military general was a bombshell with a mystery at its heart: What pushed Xi Jinping to purge a friend?
Ding XuexiangThe Wall Street Journal98%match95¢+1%
China’s recent announcement that it was investigating its top military general was a bombshell with a mystery at its heart: What pushed Xi Jinping to purge a friend?
Wang YiThe Wall Street Journal98%match93¢+5%
China’s recent announcement that it was investigating its top military general was a bombshell with a mystery at its heart: What pushed Xi Jinping to purge a friend?
Li XiThe Wall Street Journal98%match92¢+7%
China’s recent announcement that it was investigating its top military general was a bombshell with a mystery at its heart: What pushed Xi Jinping to purge a friend?
Wang YiCGTN Europe98%match93¢+5%
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasized that multilateralism is essential for effective global governance during his address at the Munich Security Conference. He called for a renewed commitment to the United Nations and cautioned against unilateral actions by major powers.…

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 1) The listed individual is removed or resigns from their primary political post or from their position, if any, on the Chinese Politburo or its standing committee, with a consensus of credible reporting describing the resignation/removal as a “purge”, “ousting”, or similar language, or to have presumably or definitively occurred as a result of corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or a lack of political favor. 2) The listed individual is expelled from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Qualifying announcements and reporting of a purge before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal/expulsion goes into effect. A listed individual leaving office at the end of a regularly scheduled term, or being removed/resigning from office without a consensus of credible reporting describing the resignation/removal as a “purge”, “ousting”, or similar language, or to have presumably or definitively occurred as a result of corruption, bribery, other criminal wrongdoing, or a lack of political favor, will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from the Chinese Government and a consensus of credible reporting.

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