Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?Thom Tillis
Open$26Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 11% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES11¢
NO90¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
WATCH: Sen. Angela Alsobrooks says the failure of the crypto bill (Clarity Act) was “not because of Democrats” and accuses Republican leadership of wanting to use the issue for political advantage ahead of the midterms • • Democrats unanimously opposed it (46 no, 0 yes, 1 non-vote). 4 Republicans joined them, including Sen. Thom Tillis—who switched his vote to "no" at the last second strictly as a procedural move to allow a future vote to reconsider.
The Senate voted 49-50 against the Clarity Act, so what happens next? • - One Republican Senate aide told me that they think the bill is dead. • - But Rep. Thom Tillis, who initially voted yes and then changed it to no, did so as part of a procedural process to potentially vote on the bill again. • - However, others voted no to the bill, including a surprise from Sen. Gillibrand (have not heard back yet on why) • • But time is running out as elections loom in November.... • • More here:
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) says this morning he’s going to vote for cloture on the Clarity Act, saying he’s “very pleased” with what the White House delivered on ethics. • • “If it doesn't address their concerns, once it's amendable, then don't vote for it on the back end”
Where does the news lean?
2YES3NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088
The qualifying vote is the first vote on final passage of the bill in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment.
This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, or if the named Senator does not vote "Yea" on the qualifying vote for any reason - including voting "Nay," voting "Present," being absent, being paired, or no longer serving in the Senate at the time of the vote.
Once the vote has closed and the result has been announced, any subsequent request by the named Senator to add, remove, or change their vote will not be considered for purposes of this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally.
This market will resolve according to official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov) and Library of Congress (http://congress.gov).
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