Will Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? Odds fell to 45% on Sep 15, 2026

OpenMove

Will Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? On , the market’s odds fell from 55¢ to 44.5¢ (-10.5 pts) within an hour of an AI-matched news signal from Punchbowl Reporter.

How did the odds move?

At match55¢
+5m54.5¢
+30m40¢
+1h44.5¢
+24h13.5¢
1h move-10.5 pts

Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.

Later moves the same day

This is the market’s single brief for Sep 15, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.

  • 55¢ → 14¢-41 ptsafter a signal from Punchbowl Reporter

What moved the odds?

YesPunchbowl Reporter98%match
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) says this morning he’s going to vote for cloture on the Clarity Act, saying he’s “very pleased” with what the White House delivered on ethics. • • “If it doesn't address their concerns, once it's amendable, then don't vote for it on the back end”

Where does this market stand now?

The market prices a 11% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES11¢
NO90¢

Vol$26K

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Will Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.

See all outcomes for Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.