Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?Josh Hawley
Open$47Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 7% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES7¢
NO93¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Senators voted 49-50 to reject the so-called Clarity Act • • Every Democrat voted against the measure. Three Republicans - Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, Josh Hawley of Missouri and Jerry Moran of Kansas - also voted against the measure. • • If Dems sweep, data centers are next.
NEWS: The Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act, a landmark crypto market structure bill. The vote was 49-50, with three Republicans voting against: Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Josh Hawley (Mo) and Jerry Moran (Kansas). • • (Tillis voted no with a motion to recommit, procedural)
NEWS: The Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act, a landmark crypto market structure bill. The vote was 49-50, with three Republicans voting against: Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Josh Hawley (Mo) and Jerry Moran (Kansas). • • (Tillis voted no with a motion to recommit, procedural)
Where does the news lean?
0YES3NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088
The qualifying vote is the first vote on final passage of the bill in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment.
This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, or if the named Senator does not vote "Yea" on the qualifying vote for any reason - including voting "Nay," voting "Present," being absent, being paired, or no longer serving in the Senate at the time of the vote.
Once the vote has closed and the result has been announced, any subsequent request by the named Senator to add, remove, or change their vote will not be considered for purposes of this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally.
This market will resolve according to official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov) and Library of Congress (http://congress.gov).
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