Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of July?37-39
ResolvedOutcome: No$3Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Bab el-Mandeb crossings dropped to a lower baseline after the July 20 Houthi threat announcement, driven by falling Saudi-linked traffic. However, the rest of the corridor has held steady for two weeks at an average of 37 crossings per day (~22% below pre-announcement levels), showing non-Saudi traffic continues to move. • • Saudi-linked crossings fell to 0.86 crossings per day last week, the lowest yet, with zero crossings on 3 of 7 days. • • Follow for daily updates:
Where does the news lean?
1YES1NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
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