Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?20-40
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$116Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Trump: Ships are coming out of the Strait of Hormuz in unprecedented numbers that no one has ever seen before, we are recording unprecedented numbers and oil prices are falling @YjcNewsChannel
Trump: Ships are leaving the Strait of Hormuz in unprecedented numbers, setting records, and oil prices are falling.
At least 35 commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, according to MarineTraffic data, as Qatari leaders meet senior US and Iranian officials in Doha. •
CNN reported that at least 35 commercial ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, according to data from the Marine Traffic Institute, as Qatari officials met with senior US and Islamic Republic officials in Doha.
During this time, 20 ships, including 11 cargo ships and 9 oil tankers, entered the Persian Gulf, and 15 ships, including 9 oil tankers and 6 cargo ships, left.
The figures are still consistent with the low level of ship traffic in recent weeks. Before the war, an average of about 110 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily.
CNN added that the disruption in the positioning system, which in recent months caused incorrect display of the positions of ships, has decreased significantly in recent weeks.
Yesterday the Strait of Hormuz stayed open: 44 transits (24 inbound, 20 outbound), no disruption to freedom of navigation despite ongoing military operations. • • Multiple OFAC-sanctioned tankers transited with AIS on, while two sanctioned VLCCs went dark to load an estimated 3–4M bbl of crude at Kharg. • • Track daily Hormuz transits:
Where does the news lean?
11YES6NO6neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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