US announces halt in Iran offensive operationsJuly 21
ResolvedOutcome: No$224Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
24 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The United States Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that US forces had concluded their 11th consecutive night of strikes on Iranian government positions at 8:15 p.m. ET on July 21. The operation targeted military facilities, naval capabilities, aircraft hangars, drone depots and logistical infrastructure, the command said.
Live: 11th night of US strikes against Iran concludes
CENTCOM announces end of 11th night of attacks on Iran The US Central Command announced an end to the attacks at 8:15 PM Eastern Time (3:45 PM Iranian time), an hour and 15 minutes after the start of the new wave of attacks on Iran. The attacks began at 2:30 AM Iranian time. @YjcNewsChannel
23:07/ 20 July
There are signs that the US is preparing to attack some nuclear facilities in Iran. An attack on nuclear facilities, although already failed, must result in a response within the nuclear program.
Mediators push for new ceasefire, but Trump considers return to full-scale war President Trump is approaching a crucial crossroads in the war with Iran, with senior American and Israeli officials claiming that he has only two realistic options: promoting a new 10-day ceasefire, designed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Or: launching a new, large-scale military campaign together with Israel, with the aim of forcing Tehran to surrender. Why is this important: Trump has not yet made a decision. However, those familiar with the details believe that the coming days will determine which path he chooses, with only limited room for maneuver left to continue the ongoing and undecided war that currently paralyzes the Gulf region. In the news center: Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan and other regional mediators have presented the United States and Iran with a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire, two regional sources with direct knowledge of the effort said. According to senior American officials, the Trump administration is reviewing the proposal and does not want Israel to take any steps at this time that could close the diplomatic window of opportunity. But that could change quickly if Trump decides he is not interested in a ceasefire. At the same time, Washington is also preparing for the possibility that the talks will fail. The US military has sent dozens of fighter jets and refueling planes to the region in recent days, thus mobilizing the forces needed for a significant military escalation. Israeli sources say that the IDF is on high alert and preparing for a scenario of expanding the fighting to a full, coordinated campaign within days. The big picture: Ten consecutive nights of American bombing failed to break Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz, deepening Trump's involvement in a war that he himself repeatedly declared he had already won. At least three American soldiers have been killed since the fighting resumed. Trump said Monday he had ordered the Pentagon to make Iran "pay many times over" for every American soldier killed. Oil prices briefly crossed $90 a barrel over the weekend after Iran expanded its attacks on merchant ships and infrastructure in the Gulf. U.S. gas prices also rose again, fueling public criticism of an already unpopular war. focusing on: Regional mediators are once again trying to stem the cycle of escalation, which is becoming more deadly, costly, and harder to contain with each additional attack. The new ceasefire proposal includes: a 10-day cessation of fighting, the opening of both shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, and the creation of a calm that will allow Washington and Tehran to save the crumbling Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). "We told the United States and Iran that we are offering a cooling-off period," said one of the regional sources. Snapshot: At this point, neither Trump nor Iran has agreed to the offer, and both sides are still trying to improve their bargaining position through additional strikes before agreeing to a ceasefire. Meanwhile, the Houthis in Yemen, who are supported by Iran, have declared a naval blockade of Saudi ports, thus opening another front against energy infrastructure and shipping lanes in the region. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned that Israel will respond to any Iranian attack with massive strikes, increasing the risk of the war expanding from the Gulf to the Red Sea and Israel. behind the scenes: According to regional sources, the mediators are trying to build on a proposal discussed on July 11 in Muscat between Oman, Iran, and Qatar, during which the United States demanded that Iran publicly commit to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. The talks ended without an agreement, and shortly thereafter Iran attacked merchant ships in the Strait - which led to the start of the American bombing campaign, which has continued every night since. According to the proposal: Both shipping lanes in the Strait will be fully reopened. The southern lane, which passes through Omani territorial waters, will be free from Iranian attacks, the northern lane, which passes through Iranian territorial waters, will be free from the American blockade. During the ten-day ceasefire, the United States and Iran will negotiate a long-term arrangement to regulate passage through the Strait. One option would allow Iran and Oman to charge "reasonable service fees" for shipping security, environmental protection and other services, according to one of the sources. The same source pointed to the Strait of Malacca model, in which Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore charge for certain services, but do not impose a general transit fee. Another idea is that the funds will be channeled into a joint fund to be managed with the participation of the International Maritime Organization (IMO). Among the parties involved in the mediation: Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatari envoy Ali Al-Thawadi, Pakistani Army Commander Field Marshal Asim Munir, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdel-Ati, and Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al-Busaidi. between the lines: A regional source said ceasefire efforts gained momentum on Saturday but stalled after an Iranian missile strike in Jordan killed at least two American soldiers, prompting Washington to temporarily withdraw from the talks. A senior American official confirmed that the talks are continuing, but said that Trump has not yet finished responding to the killing of American soldiers. “The president is focused on making Iran pay for violating the memorandum of understanding and continuing its terrorist activities in the Strait of Hormuz,” the US official said. “The president will also make Iran pay for the killing of American soldiers. These devastating blows will continue until the president decides otherwise.” What they say: Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaie confirmed on Monday that mediators are working to prevent further escalation. "The offers that were submitted through the intermediaries were accepted by us, but at this stage I prefer not to go into their details," he said at a press conference. He added that Iran's armed forces will continue to "respond forcefully and strike at the source of American aggression." Why to pay attention: It is unclear whether Trump received a full briefing on the ceasefire outline, or whether he would be willing to agree to another temporary ceasefire without a clear path to a permanent agreement. Since the collapse of the ceasefire, Trump has expressed deep frustration with Tehran, calling its leaders "sick people" and saying that continuing negotiations is a "waste of time." A regional source said the White House may continue bombing Iran for a few more days to avenge the deaths of American soldiers in Jordan, before seriously considering the proposal. The bottom line: “We are trying to formulate a sustainable solution,” said one regional source. “The Iranians cannot dictate the terms, but they cannot be ignored either.”
With the aim of "undermining its ability to attack commercial ships," the US military announces the end of a new round of airstrikes on Iran.
US military: We have ended the wave of attacks on Iran
The US Central Command, CENTCOM, announced that the new round of US attacks on the Islamic Republic's positions ended at 9 pm Eastern Time on July 20. CENTCOM said that the attacks targeted Iranian military command centers, naval capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems to reduce Tehran's ability to continue attacking commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The agency added that since early May, US forces have helped about 900 commercial ships pass through the waterway and transported about 450 million barrels of crude oil, and remain fully prepared to hold the Iranian government accountable for attacks on commercial shipping.
Live: US says latest wave of strikes on Iran now over
CENTCOM: U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) completed another round of strikes against Iran at 9 p.m. ET, July 20. • U.S. forces struck Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems to degrade Iran's ability to continue attacking commercial vessels flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. • Commercial vessel transits through the vital international maritime corridor continue. Since early May, CENTCOM forces have helped facilitate the transit of approximately 900 commercial vessels and 450 million barrels of crude oil. • American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait.
U.S. Finishes Latest Strikes Against Iran • • TAMPA, Fla. — U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) completed another round of strikes against Iran at 9 p.m. ET, July 20. • U.S. forces struck Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems to degrade Iran's ability to continue attacking commercial vessels flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. • Commercial vessel transits through the vital international maritime corridor continue. Since early May, CENTCOM forces have helped facilitate the transit of approximately 900 commercial vessels and 450 million barrels of crude oil. • American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait.
US Central Command: The wave of attacks on Iran has ended. Among the targets attacked were command centers, naval units, missile and drone sites, and air defense systems. @nathanguttman
The US military announces the end of a tenth round of strikes in Iran.
The US military says it has ended the latest wave of strikes against Iran.
CENTCOM Post, Machine Translation:
U.S. End Latest Strikes on Iran TAMPA, Fla. — U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) ended another round of strikes against Iran at 9 p.m. ET on July 20. U.S. forces targeted Iranian military command centers, naval capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems to reduce Iran’s ability to continue attacking commercial shipping passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Commercial shipping continues to transit this vital international shipping lane. Since early May, CENTCOM forces have helped facilitate the passage of approximately 900 commercial vessels and 450 million barrels of crude oil. U.S. forces remain positioned and prepared to hold Iran accountable for its unprovoked aggression against civilian mariners seeking free and unimpeded passage through the strait.
CENTCOM @VahidOnline
U.S. Finishes Latest Strikes Against Iran • • TAMPA, Fla. — U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) completed another round of strikes against Iran at 9 p.m. ET, July 20. • U.S. forces struck Iranian military command centers, maritime capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and air defense systems to degrade Iran's ability to continue attacking commercial vessels flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. • Commercial vessel transits through the vital international maritime corridor continue. Since early May, CENTCOM forces have helped facilitate the transit of approximately 900 commercial vessels and 450 million barrels of crude oil. • American forces remain postured and prepared to hold Iran accountable for unwarranted aggression toward civilian mariners seeking to freely and openly transit the strait.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the US government continues to weaken the Islamic Republic's offensive military capabilities and that US President Donald Trump wants to end the conflict through a peaceful agreement, but this will require cooperation from both sides. He also said the US will ensure the flow of oil, gas and other goods through the Strait of Hormuz, with or without Iran's cooperation. According to Chris Wright, preventing the Islamic Republic from obtaining nuclear weapons and reducing its ability to threaten its neighbors, the world and global trade are among the main goals of the Trump administration. Fox News also reported, citing a US official, that Washington has refrained from attacking Tehran's vicinity or nuclear facilities since July 7, but that approach may change if large-scale operations resume.
Live: The United States launched new strikes against Iran on Monday afternoon “at the Commander in Chief’s direction,” U.S. Central Command said in a social media post. Iran and the United States have traded strikes every day since July 11.
The US military announces the start of a new round of strikes against Iran.
The US military announces the start of a new round of strikes against Iran.
The US military announces the start of a new round of strikes against Iran.
US Central Command: We completed another wave of attacks on Iran on July 18
Assaf Rosenzweig
The US military announced that it had completed its wave of strikes in Iran, attacking Iranian military coastal surveillance and air defense facilities, naval capabilities, and missile and drone storage sites - "to continue to undermine the Iranian regime's military capabilities." In addition, the US military attacked Revolutionary Guard forces that launched attacks against American forces in Jordan on July 17.
US attacks on Iran begin
Where does the news lean?
0YES41NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, cessation, or suspension of the United States' offensive military action against Iran, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease offensive military operations against Iran, including an announcement of a ceasefire, truce, or cessation of hostilities to which the United States is a party, even if some measures remain (for example, the naval blockade, sanctions, or a defensive military posture). A time-limited cessation qualifies, provided it constitutes a general suspension of US offensive military action against Iran. A qualifying announcement need not include a commitment from Iran, provided the end or suspension of US offensive military action is communicated. An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of offensive military action against Iran. For example, a pause limited to a specific area, target, or operation, a halt to a single wave of strikes while broader operations continue, or a reduction in the scope or intensity of operations would not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present cessation or suspension of offensive military action against Iran, previously-unannounced prior cessation or suspension of such military action, or definitive decision to cease or suspend such military action.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of US offensive military action against Iran. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to US offensive military action against Iran, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a ceasefire by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending offensive military action against Iran is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to military action;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
Announcements or acceptances of a ceasefire attributed only to Iran, mediating states, or any party other than the United States; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to military action rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether military action actually ends in practice.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
Related markets
See all outcomes for US announces halt in Iran offensive operations — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.