US announces halt in Iran offensive operationsAugust 15
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$336Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
34 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
US military announces attack on Iran, calling it a "strong response" since July 23rd.
The US military announces strikes against Iran
Live: US begins retaliatory strikes against Iran
The US military announces the start of strikes against Iran
The US military announces strikes against Iran
Following the abrupt suspension of airstrikes, the US president announces "friendly" talks with Iran and warns against resuming military action.
US suspends attacks on Iran; Trump says "we will assess the dialogue"
US suspends attacks on Iran; Trump says "we will assess the possibility of dialogue."
US halts attacks on Iran; Trump urges diplomatic solution; threatens "return of military action" if talks break down.
The U.S. Halted Attacks Against Iran. A Top Commander Reportedly Said The Current Campaign Hit Its Limit. • Brad Cooper, the commander of the U.S. Military Central Command (CENTCOM), reportedly said the current campaign against Iran hit its limit of effectiveness.
Live: US and Iran pause their attacks after days of escalation
A temporary hiatus to hostilities between the U.S. and Iran appeared to hold on Monday, but Iran denied media reports that it had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire. • • The U.S. military brought a halt to two weeks of strikes on Friday as diplomats sought to give peace talks “some space.” Iran, which has also refrained from military operations against regional targets in recent days, has said it will reciprocate following a China-led push to resume stalled diplomatic efforts in Pakistan. • • Read more:
Iran halts retaliatory attacks after US military ceases operations
"To give time for diplomacy," said the US ambassador to the UN regarding the reason for the halt in attacks on Iran since the 24th; an Iranian official expressed skepticism, calling it "merely a temporary tactic."
Iran halts retaliatory operations following a halt in US attacks; however, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, and there are reports of a tanker explosion in an undesignated shipping lane.
Attacks on Iran suspended for 13 consecutive days; President Trump's decision reportedly made on the advice of US military commanders, US reports say, "There's no point in continuing" as most of the targets have been achieved.
Attacks on Iran halted after 13 consecutive days; US Ambassador to the UN says it was "to give time for diplomacy" and "will monitor developments over the next few days."
Trump halts strikes against Tehran, diplomacy returns to the forefront... Is the US-Iran war over?
The US says it is suspending military strikes against Iran to leave room for negotiations.
U.S. halts strikes on Iran as diplomatic talks move in positive direction
DUBAI/WASHINGTON, July 26 (Reuters) - Iran will halt its own attacks as long as the United States maintains its latest pause on air strikes, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Sunday, after President Donald Trump abruptly called off his two-week-old bombing campaign.
IRAN TIES MILITARY PAUSE TO U.S. STRIKE SUSPENSION • • Iran will suspend its military operations as long as the United States maintains its pause in air strikes, a senior Iranian official told Reuters, following President Donald Trump’s decision to halt a two-week bombing campaign. • • After 13 consecutive nights of U.S. strikes, Washington has now gone two days without launching new attacks. Iran, which had responded to each wave of U.S. strikes by targeting neighbouring countries hosting American military bases, has also refrained from retaliatory operations during the same period. • • According to the Iranian official, Tehran’s position remains based on “attack for attack”: if U.S. military action resumes, Iran is prepared to launch a broad response. While Washington says the pause is intended to create space for diplomacy, Iranian officials remain deeply sceptical, describing the move as likely tactical rather than a genuine shift in U.S. policy. • • U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said Trump wants to give negotiations an opportunity, though no further details were provided. Meanwhile, reports from The New York Times, CNN and Axios suggest Trump halted planned strikes after advisers raised concerns over missile defence stockpiles and the risks of further escalation. • • The temporary lull comes as tensions remain high across the region, with the Houthis expanding attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and energy markets continuing to react to uncertainty surrounding the conflict.
The Iranian military announces a "cessation of attacks" in the region following a US ceasefire.
Mike Waltz, the US ambassador to the United Nations, announced that US President Donald Trump has temporarily halted strikes on Iran to allow more time for diplomacy. Waltz said on Fox News Sunday: “He’s giving the talks time; he’s giving the talks some space to move forward.” Waltz did not provide further details about the nature of the talks, but US strikes on Iran have been suspended since Friday night. The Pentagon halted bombing operations after 13 nights of increased attacks, and there were no reports of Iranian attacks on neighboring countries on Saturday and Sunday. The spokesman for the Islamic Republic’s military also said that following the halt in US strikes, Iran had also stopped attacking Washington’s allies in the Middle East. @VahidHeadline @VahidOnline
Iranian official tells Reuters: Iran will stop attacks as long as US upholds latest ceasefire, there is more skepticism than optimism [in Iran] following halt in US attacks on Iran
US pauses Iran strikes as Oman pursues Hormuz transit deal
U.S. halts attacks after two weeks... Front spreads to Houthi and Saudi Arabia [U.S.-Iran War]
Trump orders halt to airstrikes; US reports suggest attacks on Iran may be suspended for 13 consecutive days. "I'm ready to listen."
"The decision does not mean abandoning the military option." Axios: US President Donald Trump orders a halt to strikes on Iran to test its willingness to reach an agreement.
President Trump on Friday directed the U.S. military to halt further strikes against Iran, ending a nearly two-week-long series of daily attacks, Axios reported, citing two sources familiar with the decision. Trump's decision reflects his desire to allow more space for diplomacy and his understanding that the current level of U.S. strikes has reached its limit of effectiveness unless major combat operations are resumed. If Trump were to order a return to strikes, the U.S. military could mobilize within a relatively short timeframe. The sources said the U.S. military is still developing plans for a possible resumption of major combat operations, but Trump has not yet issued orders to move in that direction.
Trump orders halt to airstrikes on Iran, US media reports; hopes for progress in negotiations?
After 13 nights of attacks, Trump ordered a halt to attacks on Iran on Friday night, to allow more space for talks – but the US military remains on alert for renewed fighting.
The US military announced that at 4:30 a.m. on Thursday, August 2, Tehran time (equivalent to 9 p.m. on July 23, 2026, Eastern time), the forces of the United States Central Command (CENTCOM) successfully completed the thirteenth consecutive night of attacks on military targets of the Islamic Republic. According to the US military statement, military command centers, drone storage sites, communication networks, coastal surveillance sites, and naval capabilities of the Islamic Republic were targeted. The statement said the attacks were aimed at further reducing the threats posed by the Islamic Republic to civilian mariners and commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The US military also announced that despite the recent attacks by the Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Strait of Hormuz remains open to navigation and commercial vessels continue to navigate freely through this international waterway with the support of the US military. The statement concluded by stating that more than 50,000 US military personnel are currently operating throughout the Middle East.
The US military announces the end of attacks on Iran.
Where does the news lean?
65YES15NO12neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, cessation, or suspension of the United States' offensive military action against Iran, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease offensive military operations against Iran, including an announcement of a ceasefire, truce, or cessation of hostilities to which the United States is a party, even if some measures remain (for example, the naval blockade, sanctions, or a defensive military posture). A time-limited cessation qualifies, provided it constitutes a general suspension of US offensive military action against Iran. A qualifying announcement need not include a commitment from Iran, provided the end or suspension of US offensive military action is communicated. An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of offensive military action against Iran. For example, a pause limited to a specific area, target, or operation, a halt to a single wave of strikes while broader operations continue, or a reduction in the scope or intensity of operations would not qualify.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government's present cessation or suspension of offensive military action against Iran, previously-unannounced prior cessation or suspension of such military action, or definitive decision to cease or suspend such military action.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of US offensive military action against Iran. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to US offensive military action against Iran, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a ceasefire by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending offensive military action against Iran is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to military action;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
Announcements or acceptances of a ceasefire attributed only to Iran, mediating states, or any party other than the United States; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to military action rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether military action actually ends in practice.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
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