Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)Pause–Pause–Pause
Open$314Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 52% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES52¢
NO48¢
as of
What moved the odds?
18 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
YESReuters93%match76¢-32%
Reuters Poll-U.S. Federal Reserve to Hold Fed Funds Rate at 3.50%-3.75% in September, Said 94 of 104 Economists (vs 95 of 104 Economists in July Poll)
#Video The Federal Reserve announced it would keep interest rates unchanged, but three regional Fed presidents voted against it, advocating for a rate hike. Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos summarized the three key takeaways from Fed Chairman Warsh's second policy meeting.
The US Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, but three officials oppose raising rates, fueling expectations of a September rate hike due to persistently high inflation.
The US Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged; the chairman said he would take action if necessary, while three officials opposed the decision, advocating for a rate hike.
COINDESK HEADLINES: Fed holds rates steady, extending pause as markets await Kevin Warsh's policy roadmap. • • Presented by @Bullish.
The US Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting, while three members opposed the decision, advocating for a rate hike.
The US Federal Reserve kept its policy interest rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting; three officials opposed raising rates, citing "uncertainty in the Middle East" as the impact to be closely monitored.
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, but three officials opposed, arguing for a rate hike. The chairman stated, "We will stick to the 2% target."
A divided Fed votes to hold rates steady
Live: “I wouldn’t characterize what we did as anything like a pause,” Warsh said in response to a question about the Fed holding rates steady today. “I would characterize what we did as a rigorous review as the economic situation.”
Fed leaves key interest rate unchanged
The Federal Reserve held rates steady for the 5th strait meeting this year. It was a 9 to 3 vote with the Cleveland Fed President, Dallas Fed President, and Minneapolis Fed President wanting a .25% rate increase. #FederalReserve
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting, while assessing the situation in the Middle East; three officials called for a rate hike.
NOAPws91%match67¢-28%
WASHINGTON (AP) — Federal Reserve leaves interest rate unchanged in 9-3 vote, but a hike is widely expected at next meeting in September
Fed holds rates steady, extending pause as markets await Kevin Warsh's policy roadmap. • For the first time in several years, markets were somewhat split on whether the U.S. central bank would hike rates.
The two day Federal Reserve meeting started at 10a ET today according to a Federal Reserve Spokesperson. A decision about a rate pause will be announced tomorrow at 2p ET / 11a PT. #FederalReserve
JUST IN: Markets are now pricing in an extended Fed pause, with no rate cuts expected until December 2027.
US rate futures see lower hike chances, higher odds of Fed pause
Where does the news lean?
28YES6NO4neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 64% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Related markets
See all outcomes for Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.