Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)Pause–Pause–Cut
Open$95Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
TRADERS NO LONGER FULLY PRICE IN A FED RATE HIKE THIS YEAR • • Prediction markets now see a 70% chance the Fed holds rates steady in September, versus 29% odds of a 25bp hike. • • A 25bp cut is priced at just 2%. • • Markets are increasingly betting the Fed can remain on hold as inflation cools. •
The two day Federal Reserve meeting started at 10a ET today according to a Federal Reserve Spokesperson. A decision about a rate pause will be announced tomorrow at 2p ET / 11a PT. #FederalReserve
JUST IN: Markets are now pricing in an extended Fed pause, with no rate cuts expected until December 2027.
Where does the news lean?
2YES10NO5neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
What would make this resolve YES?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Related markets
See all outcomes for Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.