Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)Pause–Cut–Cut
ResolvedOutcome: No$18Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The US Federal Reserve kept its policy interest rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting; three officials opposed raising rates, citing "uncertainty in the Middle East" as the impact to be closely monitored.
With interest-rate futures markets pricing in a one-third chance of a Fed hike today, whatever the Fed does will be the largest "surprise" at a non-rate-cut meeting since 1997, according to Goldman Sachs. • • A hike would be "the largest meeting-day surprise outside of cuts since the Fed started releasing statements to announce policy-rate changes."
With inflation topping 4%, the Trump administration is easing off its long-standing calls for the Federal Reserve to immediately cut interest rates. That is giving new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh an extended political grace period as he deals with a challenging economic environment, but underscores the depth of the pushback he could face if the mercurial president changes his mind. • • President Donald Trump said as recently as Wednesday that he wants the Fed to cut rates. Meanwhile several of the president’s top economic advisors have in recent interviews and writing stopped short of calling for near-term rate cuts, as they had before the Iran war sent some prices surging and Trump installed Warsh as the new Fed chairman. • • Read the full story:
Where does the news lean?
1YES7NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
How did this market resolve?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Related markets
See all outcomes for Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.