Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
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Market pricing makes Pause–Pause–Pause the favorite at 52% across 9 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Is there nearly a 60% chance of a Fed rate hike in September? Yerlan gives three reasons: the market is overvaluing it.
Minutes from Wednesday's meeting showed that the number of Federal Reserve officials who supported raising interest rates last month actually exceeded the three who formally voted against it; other officials also hinted that they would support a rate hike if inflation failed to improve.
Prediction Markets Give the Fed 74% Odds of Standing Pat in September
Reuters Poll-U.S. Federal Reserve to Hold Fed Funds Rate at 3.50%-3.75% in September, Said 94 of 104 Economists (vs 95 of 104 Economists in July Poll)
US Money-Mkt Close – Rates fall as data gives Fed fodder to pause
US Money-Mkt Close – Rates fall as data gives Fed fodder to pause
TRADERS NO LONGER FULLY PRICE IN A FED RATE HIKE THIS YEAR • • Prediction markets now see a 70% chance the Fed holds rates steady in September, versus 29% odds of a 25bp hike. • • A 25bp cut is priced at just 2%. • • Markets are increasingly betting the Fed can remain on hold as inflation cools. •
US GOVTS – Treasuries bid extends as tame PPI, jobless claims give fodder to Sept Fed pause
US GOVTS – Treasuries bid extends as tame PPI, jobless claims give fodder to Sept Fed pause
Traders add to bets on September Fed rate hold
Traders add to bets on September Fed rate hold
Bitcoin eyes $63K as US CPI relief sends September Fed rate pause odds to 60%
Bitcoin eyes $63K as US CPI relief sends September Fed rate pause odds to 60%
GOLDMAN: JULY CPI SUPPORTS SEPTEMBER HOLD • • Goldman Sachs Asset Management called July CPI “encouraging,” saying contained core inflation strengthens the case for the Fed to hold rates steady in September. • • Lindsay Rosner said the report adds to signs that underlying inflation is moderating. • • However, another inflation report is due before the September FOMC meeting, meaning the outlook could still shift. • • For now, the in-line CPI print supports a Fed pause.
GOLDMAN: JULY CPI SUPPORTS SEPTEMBER HOLD • • Goldman Sachs Asset Management called July CPI “encouraging,” saying contained core inflation strengthens the case for the Fed to hold rates steady in September. • • Lindsay Rosner said the report adds to signs that underlying inflation is moderating. • • However, another inflation report is due before the September FOMC meeting, meaning the outlook could still shift. • • For now, the in-line CPI print supports a Fed pause.
Wall Street remains divided on whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September; the inflation report is expected to decide the outcome.
Live: Officials at the Federal Reserve feel relatively confident about the state of the labor market, with the unemployment rate low and monthly jobs growth stable. Instead, they are chiefly focused on inflation, which is running well above the central bank’s 2 percent target. Policymakers are debating the need to raise interest rates to tame price pressures, which have been exacerbated by the energy shock caused by the war with Iran and the lingering impact of President Trump’s tariffs, among other factors. The labor market is not considered a main driver of inflation, with wage growth steady but not accelerating.
EY: FED LIKELY TO STAY ON HOLD THROUGH YEAR-END • • EY-Parthenon expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged through year-end, even after Friday's jobs report. • • Wall Street expects July payrolls to rise 83K, but EY says the labor market remains stable and is unlikely to shift the Fed's focus. • • The firm says only broader, more persistent inflation or a meaningful reacceleration in hiring would justify further rate hikes.
EY: FED LIKELY TO STAY ON HOLD THROUGH YEAR-END • • EY-Parthenon expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged through year-end, even after Friday's jobs report. • • Wall Street expects July payrolls to rise 83K, but EY says the labor market remains stable and is unlikely to shift the Fed's focus. • • The firm says only broader, more persistent inflation or a meaningful reacceleration in hiring would justify further rate hikes.
SEPTEMBER FED HIKE BACK IN PLAY • • The Fed held rates steady and offered no guidance, but markets viewed the meeting as dovish after Chair Kevin Warsh suggested tighter financial conditions may already be doing some of the Fed's work. • • Despite the pause, three FOMC officials dissented in favor of a 25 bp hike. Kalshi now prices a 53% chance of a September rate hike, versus 46% for no change. •
SEPTEMBER FED HIKE BACK IN PLAY • • The Fed held rates steady and offered no guidance, but markets viewed the meeting as dovish after Chair Kevin Warsh suggested tighter financial conditions may already be doing some of the Fed's work. • • Despite the pause, three FOMC officials dissented in favor of a 25 bp hike. Kalshi now prices a 53% chance of a September rate hike, versus 46% for no change. •
#Video The Federal Reserve announced it would keep interest rates unchanged, but three regional Fed presidents voted against it, advocating for a rate hike. Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos summarized the three key takeaways from Fed Chairman Warsh's second policy meeting.
The US Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, but three officials oppose raising rates, fueling expectations of a September rate hike due to persistently high inflation.
The US Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged; the chairman said he would take action if necessary, while three officials opposed the decision, advocating for a rate hike.
COINDESK HEADLINES: Fed holds rates steady, extending pause as markets await Kevin Warsh's policy roadmap. • • Presented by @Bullish.
Fed may keep interest rates unchanged, but "interest rate hikes are expected in September," says US market participant.
Fed may keep interest rates unchanged, but "rate hikes expected in September," according to US market sources.
The US Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting, while three members opposed the decision, advocating for a rate hike.
The US Federal Reserve kept its policy interest rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting; three officials opposed raising rates, citing "uncertainty in the Middle East" as the impact to be closely monitored.
The US Federal Reserve kept its policy interest rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting; three officials opposed raising rates, citing "uncertainty in the Middle East" as the impact to be closely monitored.
What is this event about?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm