ECB Interest Rates: December 202650+ bps decrease
Open$4Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
ECB: DECEMBER RATE HIKE NOW SEEN AS HIGHLY LIKELY • • Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel says another ECB interest-rate hike in December is almost unavoidable unless the inflation outlook improves significantly. • • The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.50% last week, but policymakers increasingly view the pause as temporary. • • Inflation is expected to exceed 4% in the coming months, more than double the ECB's 2% target. • • Bulgarian central bank chief Dimitar Radev also warned that the inflation outlook has deteriorated since September.
Where does the news lean?
0YES2NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 77% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
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See all outcomes for ECB Interest Rates: December 2026 — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.